Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Gold Price Linkage to Rate Tightening, Other Macroeconomic Variables

Gold is down about $10 today.

this from Andrew Willis at Canada's The Globe and Mail:

Be wary of gold and gold mining stocks once interest rates start to rise.
With the Bank of Canada and U.S. Federal Reserve expected to beginning tightening this summer, analysts at RBC Dominion Securities are out this week with a report that looks at how bullion and gold stocks perform during economic cycles.
The investment dealer crunched the last nine periods of rising rates and concluded “on average, gold equities outperform prior to the hike and lag thereafter.”
It’s difficult, or dangerous, to focus on any one outside factor when trying to forecast bullion prices, and RBC Dominion pointed to a number of forces that will move gold, apart from monetary policy, such as central bank gold selling, heightened geopolitical risk concerns and U.S. dollar weakness.