Wednesday, October 28, 2009

The Longer and More Draw-Out the Top, the More Extended the Ensuing Decline

from Dr. Brett:

As a rule, the longer a market spends topping out (i.e., the longer the time that elapses between a momentum peak and an ultimate price peak), the more extended the subsequent decline. The trick is that the decline can become extended in time (as we saw during the June to July period) as well as price.

With the September momentum peak and the October price high, I expect that any decline could be extended in time--not just price--which is keeping me so far from buying this most recent dip below the 20-day VWAP. I will begin nibbling at the long side when we see signs of bottoming in the new highs/lows, Demand/Supply, and percentage of stocks below their 20-day moving averages.