Saturday, October 24, 2009

Grains Rise Steadily

from WSJ:

Chicago Board of Trade grain and soybean futures ended sharply higher on the week as wet weather doused producers' hopes of harvesting corn and soybeans and planting wheat.
After late selling on Friday following the price run-ups, nearby December corn closed up 25.75 cents on the week at $3.9775 per bushel, while November soybeans climbed 28.5 cents on the week to $10.06. December wheat soared 49 cents last week to $5.4775.
The U.S. harvests are off to their slowest start since the government began keeping records in 1985, due to persistently cool, wet conditions. Worries that the prolonged harvest will damage corn and soybeans helped ignite rallies at the CBOT, with strong support seen from speculative buying.
The markets could easily extend gains if the lousy weather continues, said Dale Durchholz, analyst for AgriVisor, a farm marketing service in Bloomington, Ill. Private forecaster T-Storm Weather said a powerful storm system next week would likely prevent substantial harvesting from taking place until November.
"If we come in Monday and these forecasts for seven to 10 days out are still a problem, we can see this thing leap sharply higher," Mr. Durchholz said.
Wheat has benefited from investor money flowing into the markets and from worries about delayed plantings of soft red winter wheat, the type used to make pastries and snack foods. Producers in the Midwest and South often plant SRW wheat after soybeans but can't put it in the ground until the soybeans come out.
There is uncertainty about how many acres of wheat will be planted because the delay may prompt producers to consider other crops, Mr. Durchholz said. Late-planted wheat can produce lower yields.
Uncertainty will persist in the corn and soybean markets until harvest makes significant strides and traders get a handle on how big the crops are, said Sid Love, analyst for Kansas-based Kropf & Love Consulting. The crops were projected to be massive before they ran into harvest troubles.
"We're trading on an uncertainty," Mr. Love said. "We don't know what the crop is."
The U.S. Department of Agriculture will issue an update on harvest progress Monday but won't issue fresh production estimates until Nov. 10.