Monday, June 15, 2009

Dollar Gains, Commodities Collapse

Dollar Index

Commodities Indexfrom Marketwatch.com:

A pullback in commodities sent raw-materials stocks and the broader U.S. market sharply lower Monday as investors unwound some of the bets that pushed blue chips into positive territory for the year-to-date last week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average came into Monday's action up almost 23 points for 2009 but recently gave back 144 points, trading down 1.6%, at 8655.66. It was hurt by declines in 29 of its 30 components. Among the big losers were Alcoa, down 5.5%; Chevron, down 1.8%; and Exxon Mobil, off 1.6%.

The Dow's only gainer was Microsoft, up 0.1%.

A rebound in the dollar sparked a nearly across-the-board decline in commodities, which are traded globally in dollar terms.

The U.S. Dollar Index was recently up 1%, while the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index was down 2%. Crude-oil futures fell $1.29 to $70.75 a barrel in New York.

The dollar got a boost from comments by Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, who said that his country has confidence in the U.S. currency and the dollar's role as the primary global reserve currency is unlikely to change.

Commodity-related names were a key leader of the stock market's springtime rally, but they've hit turbulence lately as various government officials around the world have either tweaked plans to prop up their respective economies or dropped hints offering a revised economic outlook.

"The same way stocks have been stuck in a range lately, commodities are stuck in a range too," said Kent Engelke, managing director at Capitol Securities Management, which has recently been unwinding profitable bets on the United States Oil Fund, an exchange-traded vehicle that tracks crude prices.

"After a near-death experience in the economy, the commodities had overreacted to the upside," said Engelke. "Now everyone is adjusting back to the idea that we may get 1% or 2% growth [in U.S. gross domestic product] for the foreseeable future."