Monday, February 23, 2009

Grains: Higher Overnight, Lower on Market Weakness

This is an intriguing chart because it shows the close link at this time between price strength in the grains, and price strength/weakness in the other financial markets. Grain prices followed stock index futures higher in Sunday evening and overnight trading, but have sunk with the stock markets during the day today. Corn and soybeans are still trading higher than Friday's close, but opening the day session weaker, mirroring the weakness of stocks. Corn has given up nearly all its gains, showing just 2 cents higher since Friday, while soybean have held onto 8 cents.

Despite the somewhat bullish fundamentals for grain prices, we have now retraced to the 76.4% fibonacci level for corn, soybeans, and wheat, from the December grain rally (see daily chart below with fibonaccis marked). We've given up the ghost -- er, I mean gains! Or should I say grains! I remain short grains for now, but am eagerly awaiting the day when either 1) the grain fundamentals break free from the link to the stock market and economic news, and/or 2) weather-related news begins to exercise greater influence over grain futures prices.