Sunday, January 18, 2009

The Magnitude of the Monster

From the editorial opinion page of the Wall Street Journal:

Thanks to a 6.6% decline in revenues due to recession, a spending increase of some $500 billion or 19%, and assorted federal bailouts, the U.S. deficit for fiscal 2009 (ending September 30) will nearly triple to $1.19 trillion. That's 8.3% of GDP, which CBO says "will most likely shatter the previous post-World War II record high of 6.0 percent posted in 1983."
The details aren't known, but Mr. Obama and Democrats have been talking about at least $800 billion, and probably $1 trillion, in new spending or various tax credits and reductions over two years. Toss that in and add more expected bailout cash, and if the economy stays slow the deficit could reach $1.8 trillion, or a gargantuan 12.5% of GDP...
Including the Obama stimulus spending and assuming the full $700 billion of bailout money for the banks, insurance companies, auto firms and so forth gets fully spent, federal outlays could approach $4 trillion in 2009...
Whether or not you think new spending will stimulate the economy, the one undeniable truth is that this money has to come from somewhere, which means that it is borrowed or taxed from the private economy. This spending blowout is all but guaranteeing huge future tax increases, and anyone who thinks only the rich will pay is living an illusion. Taxpayers need some new champions in Washington -- and fast.

Here is the full editorial.

By the way, $4 trillion spent in 2009 is ten times the deficit for 2008! And we thought the Bush deficits were irresponsible! Imagine adding the equivalent of eight years' of Bush Administration deficits in just one year -- this one!

I'm just curious. Has anyone asked the question: What if this doesn't work? If this turbo-charged Keynesianism fails to recharge the U.S. (and global) economy, the American people will still be obligated to pay the debt, but without any of the benefit. What then?
Anyone for Plan B?