Sunday, August 3, 2008

Is it a Bear?

The bull trend in corn didn't last long. Now, it shows some of the markings of becoming a bear, riding a wave of weather that suggests increased corn yields, and thus, lower prices. The volume on the daily chart is still pointed higher, but prices are pointed lower. Conflict usually means consolidation and range trading. The left chart shows this evening's trading on the tick charts, and the right side shows what may be the emergence of a new bear in corn prices on the daily chart. Note also that the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart are more suggestive of a consolidation than a new bear trend, since volatility is falling rapidly.

Personally, I don't expect prices to decline too much. Commercials are already beginning to buy up corn at what they see as bargain prices. I would be surprised if the price of corn drops outside of the recent trading range. But who knows? Anything can happen!