Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Cold War II !!!

CNN, BBC, and Fox reporters on the ground in Georgia this morning are reporting that Russian troops and armored personnel carriers are on the road and moving toward Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia. Both CNN and Fox reporters are also reporting that a few Russian troops are looting cities, including Gori, outside the South Ossetia conflict zone.

Russia's leaders, Putin and Medvedev, have lied to the global community when they said yesterday that they had imposed a ceasefire and a cessation of hostilities in an agreement brokered by French President Sarkozy. They continued the invasion following the agreement. There is no reason to invade the entire country of Georgia in order to protect the citizens of one province. This is nothing short of an invasion and a shameless land grab. Since when does a government (Russia) freely distribute passports to the citizens of another sovereign country, just so they can claim them as “citizens” with the intent to invade? This was a clear set-up from the start.

Tell me how can Russia claim it is simply protecting citizens in Ossetia when it carries out attacks throughout the entire country of Georgia, with a vastly inferior military? And how could Russia have just suddenly had such a huge invasion force conveniently ready and waiting just over the border that was several times larger than the peacekeeping force the UN authorized for them in Ossetia? The Russians have been fomenting rebellion in the region with the intent of provoking a rebellion that the Georgian government would be forced to respond to. They were intentionally baiting the hook and provoking a necessary response from Georgia's elected officials!

Those of us who work in the finance industry should not underestimate the implications of this invasion. At the very least, as Russia uses its military to impose complete control on all (formerly) independent oil supplies between the Caspian Sea and the Mediterranean, this will have horrific implications for supplies of oil to Europe. Europe, if it allows this aggression to be completed, will become entirely dependent on Russia for its energy supplies. Ronald Reagan warned Europeans against building an oil pipeline to Russia, telling them that they would become dependent on Russia for their energy. The pipeline was built anyway. Now, Western Europe is so beholden to Russia that they are afraid to do anything that might provoke their petroleum benefactor. Russia has already threatened Europe's oil supplies if it doesn't get Europe's cooperation. This is a recipe for disaster.

Several years ago, I remember reading interviews with a former Soviet general in which he warned the West that the turn toward greater freedom in Russia was temporary. I don't recall his name, but he was the highest-ranking military person to ever defect to the West. He told of being present and a participant as a plan was created by Russia's military to temporarily liberalize Russia with the intent to deceive the West into disarming.

There are those who claim that Georgian President Saakashvili initiated the conflict by seeking to quell an uprising in South Ossetia. That's absurd. Since when does a country NOT have the right to put down insurrections within its own borders? Article IV Section 4 of the U.S. Constitution provides the executive branch of the federal government the authority to put down domestic insurrections and foreign invasions WITHOUT a declaration of war (although attacks on foreign countries DO require one). Would the United States ignore the threat if Mexico suddenly started shipping arms to the illegal aliens living within the borders of the United States, and supporting revolt against the authority of the U.S. government? Of course not! Would we deny that same authority and response to Georgian officials elected by their own countrymen? The Civil War in America would have ended very differently in the U.S. without that provision of the Constitution, which was employed by Abraham Lincoln.

Others have suggested that the Russians are only doing what Europe and the United States did in Kosovo. One big difference between Kosovo and Ossetia that the Russians prefer that the world ignore in their faulty comparison: Europe and the United States never helped the Kosovars achieve independence as a land grab for themselves. Furthermore, Europe and the United States never colonized Kosovo with their own citizens so as to dilute the local population, as the Russians did in South Ossetia. Europe and the U.S. had nothing personally to gain, and a lot to lose. The Kosovars were victims of constant, repeated, and systemic attempts to eliminate their very existence. The Ossetians have never been such victims. They were citizens of Georgia in revolt from their own government. There is NO moral equivalency! In Ossetia, the Russians seek to annex Ossetia into adjacent Russia, a blatant land grab. That alone speaks to motive. Ossetia will live to regret the day they pined to be part of the new Russian dictatorship. The twin KGB Kings — Putin and Medvedev — will make sure of that!

The Russian bear has awakened from hibernation and is hungry to cannibalize its former children. We in the West had better wake up to the reality of the new world. The cold war is back!