This chart is today's tick chart for the oil contract that expires today. Since the contract will expire today, the volume is relatively weak compared to more active contracts. Just one week ago, this contract had volume of many times more than today.If prices dropped precipitously on the expiration day of a futures contract, one could make the argument that the off-setting activity of speculators was the key cause of that rapid drop; commensurately, one could make the case that the rising prices prior to today were also caused by speculators. However, since prices are rising strongly on the day of contract expiration, as speculators are being forced to sell en masse to exit the market, this is evidence that commercial hedgers are driving oil prices higher, not speculators. While these commercial hedgers are the key reason that prices move higher, both commercial hedgers and speculators add needed liquidity to the market.
