Sunday, April 20, 2008

Was CPI Under-Reported?

This is a direct quote from the website of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 0.9 percent in March, prior to seasonal adjustment.”
If the correct figure for urban consumer inflation, as reported by the U.S. government, is .9% for one month, how much is it for a year? 4.3% so far, according to this same report. The reason this report doesn't garner much attention in the new media is that it measure inflation only in urban areas -- cities -- while the headline number measure inflation for everyone, including rural-dwelling people.

While 4.3% may not seem too terribly high, the same report also indicates that the inflation figure for the past 3 months was 3.3%. And keep in mind that the most recent month's inflation was nearly 1%. In other words, nearly all the inflation was incurred this year! And inflation is still accelerating! The amount for 2008 implies that if it continues at the same pace, the annual inflation rate will be 13.2% for this year! However, since the inflation figure is accelerating in the most recent months, it is possible that inflation could be much higher still by the time 2008 becomes a distant memory.