Monday, April 28, 2008

USD Backs Off Highs

The US Dollar has backed off slightly from its surge higher last week, as shown in the first chart above in this post. I am closely watching the daily chart. The Dollar Index futures, shown here, still haven't closed outside the Upper Bollinger Bands, so a new trend higher hasn't been confirmed. If the US Dollar Index remains above the Exponentilal Moving Average, it is possible for a Cahen pre-parallels pattern to occur, a highly profitable pattern.

If, however, the value of the Dollar slides below the 8-period Exponential Moving Average, then the surge in the Dollar was just a temporary increase based upon short-term news. Interestingly, the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index futures have continued to show considerable price strength (see the 2nd chart, below). Just in case you noticed the inverse correlation between the value of the Dollar and commodity prices, it's not coincidental!