Thursday, April 10, 2008

Stocks Flat

This chart shows an interesting phenomenon. Except for Fed interventions, stocks have generally ended flat to lower. After the Fed-induced rally of 400 points a few weeks ago, the last 8 consecutive trading sessions have ended nearly flat. Look at the blue box on this chart. It shows 8 consecutive doji candles for the past several days. the good news is that usually, when a doji doesn't lead to a reversal on the next candle, the existing trend is likely to continue. In this case, it is a hopeful sign for stock market bulls. The longer the pattern persists, however, the more likely is a reversal. Also interesting to note is that nearly all of the green (up) candles were days when the Fed intervened. But look what happened on the days following the green Fed intervention days! Ouch!

Needless to say, there is great indecision in the stock markets about the direction of the US economy.