Despite an early sell-off, some stagnant periods during today's trading, and somewhat difficult conditions during much of the day, the bulls won out in the end. Soybean prices closed higher. The trade shown as the green arc above is one of the longest-lasting trades I've taken in quite awhile on an intra-day basis.Corn ended the day flat, with the same settlement price as yesterday. What are the odds of that happening?
Eventually, I plan to open another trading account, most likely with Interactive Brokers. I want to test my ideas about whether it is more profitable to place long-term trades or trade intra-day exclusively. Right now, I trade primarily intra-day. I suspect that I am making much more money trading both long and short, than I would if I were to place only long-term trades on the daily charts. I will continue to trade using TradeStation software, but I will place long-term orders on another PC through another broker. Since I've used IB before, and I know their trading platform, they would be a logical choice for me. They also allow me to trade equities through them, including overseas exchanges.
Current Soybean Bull Trend at Risk
The soybean bull is at a key junction point on the daily charts, and if prices don't continue to push above the resistance point (of the Upper Bollinger Band) and continue to close above the EMA, I expect prices to collapse, and most likely, we will see range trading and price consolidation for the medium-term future. Today was important because prices continued to close above the Exponential Moving Average, thus keeping the bullish trend intact. Still, for the bull trend to continue, prices must push higher than the most recent high of $14.15 set on April 15th, and eventually, prices must push higher than, and close above, the Upper Bollinger Band, which is currently at about $14.20. Right now, the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart are going flat, suggesting a consolidation pattern.
Even the Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart are suggesting that a consolidation is a higher probability than a renewed bullish trend. If prices push through $14.20 and continue to close higher, then the Upper Bollinger Band on the weekly chart, currently at about $15.00, would be the next price target. This is why I say that soybean prices are at a key inflection point over the next few trading days.
Watch the weather!
