Monday, March 17, 2008

Wheat Locks Limit Down Too! Commodity Rout!

Wheat, although trading freely throughout the day, also locked limit down shortly before the close of the session, almost certainly in a sympathy move with other weak commodity prices. Sugar, cotton, copper, coffee, nickel, crude oil, cocoa, and even gold (to a lesser degree) are also all down dramatically today. Today was a commodity price rout!

However, I am hearing traders say that they will buy the dips in commodities. After such a dramatic rise in commodity prices over the past two months, I anticipate more of a consolidation than a bear market. Historically, prices following a strong bull market tend to consolidate in the near term rather than reverse. Following a consolidation period, either a bull or bear market can occur, although I believe a new bull (following an earlier bull) has a higher statistical frequency, from my experience.