Friday, March 14, 2008

Lockdown: Soybeans & Wheat

Both soybeans and wheat (above) have reached (for wheat, came within a hair's breadth) lock limit down prices. What a remarkable event, considering that both grains have been in a bull trend for extended periods and that they both have a wide lock limit range.

The weekly chart, below, puts the bearishness of soybeans prices over the past few days into perspective. This chart extends back to about April 1, 2007. This weekly chart, by the way, could have been extended much farther into the past, and would have gone much lower still. It is significant also that prices have now closed below the Exponential Moving Average and the Klinger Volume indicator is also showing heavy distribution pressure -- and this is the weekly chart! Since prices have closed at lock limit down, this suggests that for long-term traders, if prices continue downward on Monday, even long-term traders may choose to sell as well.