Friday, May 2, 2008

Critically Important: Time to Write to Congress

From the CME website today:

"One of the farm leaders there said today that farmers will act in some unspecified way to limit trade in agricultural commodities to what is strictly necessary."
I had delayed writing this piece because I wanted to see if the threat was serious. I am now convinced that it is. The quote above is a follow-up to testimony before Congress last week by leaders of a few agricultural groups in which these groups tried to persuade Congress that they should eliminate the use of margins for all traders who don't provide or take delivery in the futures markets. They recommended to Congress that they should demand that market participants who don't provide or take delivery of products should be required to pay 100% up front to place a trade. 100%! In other words, they want to eliminate all leverage in the futures markets -- except for themselves! They want to ban everyone from the futures markets except hedgers and commercials! They want to ban you from the futures markets! Keep reading, because this has the potential to affect you even if you only buy stocks and Exchange Traded Funds because it will limit your investment choices!

Lest anyone think that this couldn't happen -- certainly not in America -- please keep in mind that the farm lobby is one of America's most powerful and most effective. They have used this power and influence in Washington to guarantee the most profitable and consistent tax-payer funded subsidies for decades. They even get paid from your taxes at times to not grow anything at all! Imagine! Wouldn't it be nice to be paid out of the pockets of the tax payers to not work?! Not many have achieved that status, but this group is so powerful that they have!

Now, the farm lobby wants to not only dig deep into your pockets for their own financial gain. They also want to limit market participants to just themselves. This selfish action needs to be nipped in the bud now, before it can gain any more traction. The CFTC, the Federal regulatory agency that oversees the futures industry, recently released a report debunking the absurd allegations of these farm groups. However, these groups don't care about the lack of factual basis for their absurd and false notions. They are pressing ahead with their erroneous self-interests, despite how it will hurt them in the long run.

Some traders may say, "Why should I care? I don't trade grains or softs!" But isn't it nice to have the availability of ETFs that trade commodities, like the famous gold, oil, and other Exchange Traded Funds? Do you want that option to be eliminated for you?

All traders should care because the same rules that will be imposed on grain traders and funds will almost certainly be imposed on traders in all futures, including treasuries, stocks, energies (crude oil), precious metals, etc. There is a provision in our government system of fairness called equal treatment under the law. This concept is a sword that cuts both ways. It both protects everyone, but it also brings an equal burden on everyone. If they can shut you out of the agricultural commodities markets, then it is a start down the slippery slope of shutting you out of other futures markets as well. Are you willing to run that risk?

Furthermore, even if you currently don't trade agricultural commodities, wouldn't it be wise for you to at least keep the option open of doing so? If the farm lobby shuts down that option for you, then that is one less avenue for you as a professional. Wouldn't it be better to keep that option available to you? It would be wise to take the time to find the website of your Congressman and write them to let them know that this would not only hurt you and your family; it would hurt the financial markets, also, because it would limit liquidity and limit your options as a trader.

Furthermore, you might also mention to Congress that if they shut down the futures markets here in America, you may be forced to send your money overseas to other futures markets in other countries like Europe, China, Singapore, India, etc. All these countries also have active futures markets. This would make the United States less competitive with these other countries! That would not be beneficial for the health and vitality of the financial markets of the United States, would it? It would make the financial markets of this country less liquid, less open, and thus, less competitive. It would also very likely reduce your tax payments to the U.S. government if your income is derived more and more from overseas! In a time of greater global competition than ever before, and a stagnant economy with fewer jobs, that's the last thing the U.S. economy needs, isn't it?

If you value your freedom to trade and participate in the financial markets, it is time to defend that freedom, or one of America's most powerful lobbies will take that freedom away from you!

I might also add that CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton has already come out in opposition to this proposal from the farm lobby. He so testified before Congress in the same hearings as the farm lobbyists, and he issued the report from the CFTC that disputed and corrected the erroneous allegations of the agriculture groups who want to limit your freedoms! If the regulatory agency of the government is opposed to this nefarious plan of the farm lobby, then we have the strength of moral imperative on our side. Don't make the mistake of being apathetic on this issue!

It's time to write to Congress! Protect your livelihood, your investment options, and your freedom today!

Soybeans and Corn

Soybeans has sustained its price gains for the day (left chart), while corn has reversed and is very likely to close down for the day (right chart). This strikes me as an odd phenomenon, given that corn prices have been moving higher lately, and soybean prices have been sagging. Both are in a consolidation pattern on the daily charts. Perhaps this is occurring due to a change in weather patterns, but this is just a wild guess. Mid-session, the CME reported that corn "traders indicated that the tone is weak in export markets due to a lack of demand and a well-stocked pipeline." Perhaps this affected corn prices. However, demand for soybeans was relatively weak also, and prices closed higher! As I have said before, the reason is ultimately irrelevant. All that matters is that the phenomenon occurs.

Ouch! That Hurts! Pain is Good!

Pain in the human body is a signal from the brain that something is wrong, and that action must be taken to ensure survival. Pain inflicted by a hot stove tells a person to withdraw their hand immediately, or the survival of the hand (limb) or body may be in jeopardy. The reaction is swift and precludes severe damage to the body that could affect the survival of a person or irreparable destruction to the affected body part.

The same is true of the emotional pain of a bad trade. If a trader begins to feel the pain of a developing loss, it is a signal that something is wrong with that trade. It is a signal to exit -- the more quickly, the better! It precludes damage to the financial welfare of a trading account and ensures its survival also. Otherwise, irreparable damage to one's finances will be the result.

Trading Treasuries

One of the nice characteristics of trading treasury futures is a concept that Chick Goslin mentions in his book, Trading Day By Day. He expounds that the larger and more liquid a market is, the more gradually it changes direction. I think he compares it in his book to changing the direction of a large ocean liner versus changing the direction of a speed boat. A speed boat can change direction on a dime, but its movements are therefore more erratic and difficult to anticipate. An ocean liner, on the other hand, can't change direction or stop on a dime. It may take a half mile or more to bring itself to a complete halt. Its volume or mass simply can't be halted quickly. Therefore, its movements can be more easily charted and anticipated. Likewise, the larger the volume and open interest of a particular futures contract, the higher the volume of contracts in the opposing direction are required for that futures vehicle to stop and/or change direction, and the less erratic are its movements.

Stock futures -- at times -- seem to buck this rule for some inexplicable reason. Perhaps this is because they are the first choice of inexperienced traders, thus creating far more market noise and erratic price action. This is just a guess, however. I suppose I should be grateful that they stay in the stock mini's, where their influence is contained, if this is the case. More inexperienced traders in the other futures markets might bring with them this phenomenon of erratic movements and market noise. Who knows? That's just my opinion, and I could be completely wrong about it.

This size-of-market phenomenon can be an advantage to a trader. A small trader can therefore maneuver in these very liquid futures markets, entering and exiting trades several times with small profits or small losses in repeated attempts to accurately position himself/herself in the market to maximum advantage. Imagine a small speed boat (a small trader) racing around an ocean liner, making circles rapidly while the ocean liner slowly attempts to slow down and change direction. This is one of the reasons why tight spreads are so critical to traders. (Take heed of that point, Forex traders!)

Treasury futures are so liquid that even very large individual traders will have minimal impact on the market. I could easily place a position of 300 contracts without affecting prices in the slightest. Now that's liquidity! Using our speed boat analogy, imagine our little speed boat (us, the trader) on the vast Pacific Ocean of the most liquid financial futures. While the Pacific Ocean has the capacity to easily destroy a careless small speed boat, the little boat also has the advantage of adept handling and maneuverability. One must understand both the power of the ocean and the advantages we have as small traders in order to remain safe on that ocean and properly take advantage of it.

Another advantage that this size phenomenon afford to traders is that since the market moves somewhat slower, it makes a good training ground for beginning traders. Beginners can practice and learn how to achieve good and accurate executions, and critical skill to develop.

On the other hand, I could take a position of about 25-30 contracts in soybeans (about 50 in corn) without affecting the market much. When the day arrives that I am trading positions of that size, I will may switch permanently to trading treasuries. At that point, the Law of Large Numbers kicks in. I'm not there yet! I have a long way to go before that occurs. Once I am trading positions of that size, I may remain in the grains markets and just limit myself to trading positions that keep me from the reaching the limitations of the Law of Large Numbers. Even at that level, I can be very satisfied with the income level it will provide to me.

Exponential Moving Average Break-Out

As suggested in my previous post, once prices closed above the Exponential Moving Average in the 15 minute chart (left), prices were likely to move higher. The bears had exhausted themselves, unsuccessful in forcing prices any lower, and once prices close above that level (the EMA), technical traders were emboldened to push treasuries higher.

I am also keeping in mind, however, that on the longer-term, daily charts, the trend in treasuries is still down. For some reason, Blogger is not permitting me to post this daily chart, even after more than a dozen attempts. There are signs of buying in the treasuries, however, as the Klinger Volume indicator has turned up. This suggest conflicting signals between higher interest rates and a strengthening Dollar -- turmoil in the markets.

Trading In Stagnant Markets

Trading when markets are stagnant and consolidating is very difficult, but certainly possible, if liquidity remains good, as with the treasuries market. Fortunately, the treasuries futures have both excellent liquidity at all hours of the day as well as tight spreads. I don't recall ever seeing the 10-year treasury futures trading with more than a one-tick spread. Ever!

I have seen countless patterns like the one above in which a sudden move occurred, but there was little or no follow-through activity. From my experience, one never knows whether prices with break up or down at the end of such a pattern. I've noticed that the Exponential Moving Average tends to operate as support or resistance (as in this case). However, once a price bar closes on the opposite side of the EMA, as they appear poised to do here, the likelihood of a move in the new direction increases. In this case, the treasury bears haven't been successful in pushing prices lower. They appear to have exhausted themselves. Once prices close above the EMA, higher treasury prices are much more likely. Just the same, "anything can happen" (Mark Douglas, Trading in the Zone). I have also seen examples where prices pushed through an EMA, and then the opposing forces rallied and were finally able to force prices back through the EMA once again. Like I said: anything can happen!

In a situation like the one shown above on this 15 minute chart, I will trade fewer contracts than I would in a rapidly-moving market, and I will exit very quickly as soon as my charts show the slightest hint of moving in the wrong direction. I will be satisfied to take just 2-3 ticks of profit, or even just break even. Profit is profit. It is a temptation, since the profits are small, to increase the size of my position so I can squeeze more profit from these tiny trades. However, the higher risk of these small trades must also be considered, so there is a definite trade-off there.

One of these days in the near future, I will discuss Chaos Theory and fractals. It's a fascinating subject. I look for fractals as add-on or re-entry points in my trading. Understanding them is very helpful in trading.

Corn Takes Off Also

Corn has ignited also. Corn is just a few cents away from another new all-time high price. The last high was April 9th at $6.28 6/8 per bushel. Liquidity and volatility have returned to the grains markets. Good!

Crude Oil Moves Higher, Soybeans Supported

Crude oil has once again begun a push for higher prices, and the oilseeds are following them higher as well, including soybeans. While the correlation isn't something I would trade on, the connection between the price of crude oil and biofuel grains is real. When crude oil prices rise, the grains that are used to create ethanol tend to follow. This is almost inevitable, since the fate of the two are linked.

Crude Climbs Higher

Crude oil has begun moving higher again, apparently due to Turkey's bombing of the Kurds in Iraq.

Erratic Trading and Poor Liquidity Today

Thus far today, trading in the grains markets has been poor. The chart patterns are erratic and unreliable, and liquidity has dried up. Spreads are too wide. I am always vigilant of the grains charts, because they can change at any time, but today, I am currently trading treasuries and the S&P 500 futures. No strong news appears to be driving the markets one direction or another. Monday, another crop report will probably have great impact on trading.

Thursday, May 1, 2008

Finally, A Rebound!

You can't keep a good bean down for long! I just love those little beans!

Soybeans Toy With Lock Limit

The lock limit price is the light blue dotted line.

Stronger Dollar Overrides Corn Concern

Despite the concern for planting delays, corn is following many other commodities that are also priced in US Dollar, and the greenback gains strength one day following the Fed's decision. The financial markets have interpreted the Fed's statement yesterday as suggesting a pause, and the Dollar is much stronger today as a result. Even bullish planting delays for corn can't push prices higher. This seems to underscore the influence of the currency, despite statements by the Chairman Bernanke to the contrary.

Soybean Slump

The combination of a much stronger Dollar and delayed planting for corn is pushing soybean prices even lower still.

Global Currencies Break Down Against the Dollar

Euro
Canadian Dollar
British Pound Sterling
Australian Dollar
Swiss Franc
New Zealand Dollar

Meanwhile Gold, Crude Plunge

This appears to be the emergence of a true pivot in the financial markets, as gold and crude oil are also plunging much lower today. Crude oil is trading around $110, and gold is close to $850, more than $180 off its most recent high of $1033. A Dollar rally appears to be under way.

Crude Oil
Gold

Dollar Sets Up for Bullish T1

In these two charts, we see that the Dollar has now moved briskly higher. Note in the 10 minute chart below that the rally has been brisk, beginning in the overnight session.
The daily chart (see below) also shows the emergence of a T1 set-up for a bull trend for the greenback, if today's candle closes outside the Bollinger Bands, as shown below. This candle is not yet complete, since the day session is on-going. It is also noteworthy in this chart that volume has been bullish for more than a month.

Corn Rallies on Planting Uncertainties

In contrast to the price of soybeans today, corn has rallied off the brief opening swoon, and is moving higher for the day (see chart below). We are now beginning to see corn and soybeans diverge significantly in their chart patterns, as poor planting conditions for corn (bullish for prices) are resulting in more planting of soybeans (bearish for prices).
The daily chart for corn (below) still shows a consolidation pattern on the Bollinger Bands, but the conditions for a new bull trend in corn may be in the initial set-up stages leading to a T1. Note in the 2nd panel that heavy buying is occurring, even though prices on the longer-term basis have not yet begun to rise.

Straight Down!

The price of soybeans has dropped precipitously this morning, along with corn and wheat. Corn is beginning to stage a rally. The planting delays for corn are beginning to become critical. After May 15, every day that the corn is delayed will cause greater and greater yield reductions, thus increasing the acreage dedicated to soybean production instead.

In Europe, there are ETFs dedicated to each specific commodity, so that we could short soybeans and take along position in corn. In the United States, I know of no way to do this. Our ETF companies are late to the ball game in this respect.

Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Fed Undercuts Dollar

Disappointing the financial markets today, the Fed issued what is being interpreted as a surprisingly dovish statement, sending both the US Dollar and stock markets lower. Note that the price plunge on the US Dollar Index futures chart occurred immediately following the issuance of the Fed's statement at 2:15 PM EST. This may be supportive of commodity prices. Gold moved higher as the Dollar moved lower. Ironically, even the stock market indexes sold off following the Fed's move.