Wednesday, July 13, 2011

Phase 2 of Crisis: Era of Broken Promises

This graph had the comment shown following:


Phase 2 of the crisis:  "Broken Promises".  Where everyone is awakening to the fact that all of the promises made implictly (through fiat currency, a claim on future wealth), or explicitly (e.g. medicare, social security), are seen to be in conflict.  Not all promises will come true, so whose promise will be kept.
It will gradually dawn on everyone that none of the promises will be kept.
There will be great disillusionment at all levels of every society, globally.  If there's one thing you can do, beyond helping yourself and others, it's to help others deal with the grief of a dead illusion.  Beyond starving, that will be one of the hardest things for people to bear. -- comment by commenter Fiat2Zero on Zero Hedge

The Price of Rice

Rice was limit up today:


And from the daily chart, it isn't the first time in recent days:
Rice is becoming very expensive!

Dow Relinquishes All But 20 Points of 160-Point Gain

Wow! What a reversal today! If there was a full POMO, this would never have happened! This is far more typical of historical patterns. We are definitely climbing a new wall of worry. This is my favorite type of trading, because I can make money trading both directions.

Typical Bernanke Reversal


As is typical for any time that the Fed Chairman opens his mouth, the market has now completely reversed the impact of his words today. The large green candle at the top left of this chart is the market's reaction to his prepared statement. It is typical for the market to completely reverse the impact of Bernanke's remarks within hours of said statements. The stock market is still significantly higher for the day, despite this reversal. But we still have more than 40 minutes in the session, too, and the market is now accelerating to the downside as I type this!

Grains Respond to Bernanke's Calls for (Transitory) Inflation!

Sugar High! It May Be the Only One I Can Afford!

Bernanke Creams Dollar

Gold Reaches Another Record

And based upon what Bernanke is saying today, it's going to go much higher.

Wall Street Loves "Bubbles" Bernanke

But they hate (economic) freedom! This is the market reaction to Bernanke's promise of more money creation to come!

Tuesday, July 12, 2011

Chinese Bailout of Europe Incites Rally

It's a choppy, low-volume market today! The Dow futures were down 100 points until China announced its most recent bailout of Europe. What is their motive? Why would a sovereign wealth fund prop up a failing, insolvent country? Why would they seek to help a country that has overspent itself and is almost certain to default? This is one of those events that makes you go, "Hmmm!".

Monday, July 11, 2011

It's Getting Worse! Even Dollar Stores Feeling Pinched!

Wow! Check out that headline from CBS:


LOS ANGELES (CBS) —  More stores across the U.S. that offer deeply-discounted products are seeing their sales decline after years of growth amid America’s “Great Recession” — and one analyst said on Monday it’s another sign of even deeper downturn.
While the demand at stores like the 99-Cent Store or Dollar Tree is still relatively high, the biggest chains in the nation have fallen short of Wall Street’s expectations for several months, a trend that may prove even more ominous for the economy at large.
“I think what’s going on in those stores is that we are in a depression for 80 percent of Americans,” top retail analyst Howard Davidowitz told KNX 1070.
America’s three largest discount chains — Dollar General Corp., Family Dollar Stores Inc. and Dollar Tree Inc. —  all recently missed their quarterly earnings targets.
Davidowitz pointed to the weakness of the dollar and a gloomy consumer outlook as some of the factors behind the stores’ slump.
“In those stores, somebody comes in with $12 to do all their shopping,” said Davidowitz. “The person who used to come in with $12 now comes in with $8.”
“In other words, the economy is continuing to be worse, the Obama depression continues to explode,” he added.
Analysts say rising food and transportation prices are likely eating into the profit margins of discount stores, which risk driving away price-sensitive customers with any potential price hikes.
Core customers at most U.S. discount chains typically have a household income of $40,000 or less.

Dow Crushed 170 Points

Europe is crumbling.

Saturday, July 9, 2011

Friday, July 8, 2011

Fascinating Debt/Economics Presentation From a Biblical Ethical Perspective

Risk Off? Not In the Grains Markets!

This Is What a Depression Looks Like!

It's a Depression! Labor Force Participation Rate Plunges to 25-Year Low!

from Zero Hedge:

This chart needs no commentary. At 64.1%, the Labor Force Paritipcation rate just dropped to a fresh 25 year low: the civilian labor force declined by 272K from 153,693 to 153,421. And tangentially, the employment to population ratio also slumped to a multi decade low of 58.2%.

Gold, Treasuries Leap! Crude Oil, Dollar Plunge!

Gold


Treasuries

Crude Oil

Dollar

Awful Jobs Report!

There is simply no way to spin this positively! Dow futures plunged from +60 to -100 in about ten seconds! Without the birth/death "adjustment", we would have lost 113,000 jobs! But Wall St will ignore this and bid up stocks quickly!


from Zero Hedge:


Absolute disaster. Total jobs per the establishment survey: +18K on expectations of 105K, Private Jobs + 57K on expectations of 132K. Last month total was revised from 54K to 25K. Combined April and May revision down 44K. The household survey was down by 445K from 139,779 to 139,334. Birth death adjustment + 131K. Complete humiliation for Wall Street's economists, the lowest prediction of whom came Bob Brusca at +60K. From the NFP: "Nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in June (+18,000), and the unemployment rate was little changed at 9.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor  Statistics reported today. Employment in most major private-sector industries changed little over the month. Government employment continued to trend down." It is time for Joe LaVorgna to retire, with his 175K forecast, or off by a factor of 972%.
Birth Death:

Some key jobs categories:
Employment in government continued to trend down over the month (-39,000). Federal  employment declined by 14,000 in June. Employment in both state government and local government continued to trend down over the month and has been falling since the second half of 2008.

Manufacturing employment changed little in June. Following gains totaling 164,000 between November 2010 and April 2011, employment in this industry has been flat for the past 2 months. In June, job gains in fabricated metal products (+8,000) were partially offset by a loss in wood products (-5,000).

Construction employment was essentially unchanged in June. After having fallen sharply during the 2007-09 period, employment in construction has shown little movement on net since early 2010.
There is no sugarcoating this report. Absolutely abysmal.

Thursday, July 7, 2011

Market Doubles Good News, Ignores Bad News

"Who cares about headfakes: the market is back in its mania phase when good news are doubly accentuated, and bad news are immediately ignored." Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge