There might not have been a second round of quantitative easing, if Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke shopped at Walmart.
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-0.18 (-0.29%) There might not have been a second round of quantitative easing, if Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke shopped at Walmart.
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-0.18 (-0.29%) from Boston.com:
SEOUL — President Obama’s hopes of emerging from his Asia trip with the twin victories of a free trade agreement with South Korea and a unified approach to spurring global economic growth ran into resistance on all fronts yesterday, putting Obama at odds with his key allies and largest trading partners.
The most concrete trophy expected to emerge from the trip eluded his grasp: a long-delayed free trade agreement with South Korea, first negotiated by the Bush administration and then reopened by Obama, to have greater protections for US workers.
from Bloomberg Businessweek:
by Chris Martenson on his blog:
For a very long time I have been calling for, expecting and otherwise anticipating the day that the Federal Reserve would begin openly monetizing government debt. I knew the day would come intellectually, but in my heart I hoped it wouldn't. But with the Fed's recent decision to directly monetize the next 8 months of federal deficit spending, that day has finally arrived. I have to confess, while my prediction has proven accurate, I’m still stunned the Fed actually did it.
In this report I examine the risks that this new path presents, what match(es) may finally ignite the decades-old pile of dry fuel, what the outcomes are likely to be, and what we can and should be doing in preparation.

A Bridge to Fiscal Sanity?There it is in black and white. You might want to read it a couple of times to let it sink in. The Fed is directly monetizing the next eight months of excess(ive) spending by the federal government and is doing it despite being perfectly aware of the extent to which history is littered with the economic carcasses of those who have traveled this path before.
The Federal Reserve will buy $110 billion a month in Treasuries, an amount that, annualized, represents the projected deficit of the federal government for next year. For the next eight months, the nation’s central bank will be monetizing the federal debt.
This is risky business. We know that history is littered with the economic carcasses of nations that incorporated this as a regular central bank practice.
“Either cuts in spending or increases in taxes will be necessary to stabilize the fiscal situation…The Federal Reserve will not monetize the debt.”In summary, the difference between QE I and QE II is that QE I went primarily to the banks and QE II is going directly to the government. While this may be something of a semantic difference, it shows that the Fed is changing its strategy again. We might ask: why this shift and why now?
~ Ben Bernanke
Xinhua: G-20 Should Set Up Mechanism To Monitor Reserve Currency IssuersAll of the above is loosely coded diplomatic speak for "The US really bummed us out here, they should have stuck to the agreements we thought we had after the Pittsburg meeting. Going off-script like this was really not appreciated. We think an intervention is needed here."
BEIJING (Dow Jones)--China's state-run Xinhua News Agency published a commentary on Tuesday calling for the Group of 20 industrial and developing economies to supervise the issuance of international reserve currencies, and harshly criticized the U.S. Federal Reserve's new round of quantitative easing.
The G-20 should "set up a new mechanism that effectively monitors the issuer of the international reserve currency, especially when it is not able to carry out responsible currency policies," Xinhua said, making an apparent reference to the U.S. as the issuer of the dominant reserve currency.
"Considering the influence of the policy moves in the major international reserve currencies on the global economy, it is necessary for the issuer of the international reserve currency to report to and communicate with the G-20 Group before it makes major policy shifts."
PBOC Academic Adviser Questions Dollar’s Global RoleHere are a few other selected expressions of dismay from around the world:
Nov. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Li Daokui, an academic adviser to China’s central bank, said it could be seen as “absurd” that the dollar remains a reserve currency after the financial crisis.
United States receive criticism from all sides because the decision to print money
U.S. decision to pump 600 billion dollars into the economy has sparked a wave of strong disapproval. World leaders, who are preparing for the G20 summit in Seoul this week, warns that the move will complicate U.S. global economic recovery.
G20 tensions rise over the future of the global economy
The US last week stoked the simmering tensions by unveiling plans for another $600bn (£370bn) of quantitative easing (QE), on top of the $1.7 trillion already in place. The dollar crashed in what is being seen as the latest round of competitive devaluations, as nations seek to debase their currencies to help domestic industry.
Brazil retaliated by buying dollars. Xia Bin, a member of the Chinese central bank's monetary policy committee, branded the US stimulus plan "abusive" and warned it could spark a new global downturn. German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble accused the US of breaking the promise made at June's G20 in Toronto, saying he would "speak critically about this at the G20 summit in South Korea."
Just two weeks earlier, G20 finance ministers at the warm-up summit in Gyeongju, South Korea, had pledged to refrain from competitive devaluation and Tim Geithner, the US Treasury Secretary, had promised the US would retain its "strong dollar" policy. At Seoul, the US will be facing accusations of empty rhetoric.
The harmonious language of hope at the Pittsburgh summit has now given way to something brazenly belligerent. The Brazilian President, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has said he will go to the G20 meeting in Seoul ready "to fight." For President Obama, who has just lost a bruising midterm election battle, it will mean another painful encounter.
Greece Hits Out At Money-Printing NationsIn summary, QE II has been described by several major trading partners as "clueless," "abusive," "absurd," and even resulted in a lecture from Greece on the subject of printing. By the time you are getting lectured by Greece on monetary actions it might be time for a bit of self-reflection.
Speaking on Jeff Randall Live, George Papaconstantinou warned quantitative easing only serves to stoke up inflation.
"You get inflation. You get a situation that's out of control. People lose their purchasing power. It doesn't get you very far," he said.
$10.2 Trillion in Global BorrowingJust ponder those numbers for a bit. The average borrowing across 15 major developed countries is 27 percent of GDP(!). Ask yourself how dependent the entire OECD world is on a smoothly operating financial system in order to merely function next year.
Next year, fifteen major developed-country governments, including the U.S., Japan, the U.K., Spain and Greece, will have to raise some $10.2 trillion to repay maturing bonds and finance their budget deficits, according to estimates from the International Monetary Fund. That’s up 7% from this year, and equals 27% of their combined annual economic output.
from FT.com:
The US is pursuing a policy of weakening its currency which is driving up exchange rates in the rest of the world, according to Alan Greenspan, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve.
Writing in today’s Financial Times ahead of the G20 meeting in Seoul, Mr Greenspan argues that with China also holding down the renminbi, the upward pressure on currencies elsewhere risks a return to widespread trade protectionism. Mr Greenspan criticises China for continuing to prevent the renminbi strengthening, saying it reflects a misguided view that a weak currency is necessary for export growth and political stability. “China has become a major global economic force in recent years,” he writes. “But it has not yet chosen to take on the shared global obligations that its economic status requires.” More unexpectedly, Mr Greenspan adds: “America is also pursuing a policy of currency weakening.”
"The Fed has spent the last 15, 20 years manipulating the stock market. I think they know what they do has no direct impact on the economy, the only weapon they have is the so-called wealth effect: if you can drive the market up 50%, people feel richer, they feel a little more confident, and the academics reckon they spend about 3% of that. The problem is they know very well how to stimulate the market, but they step away when the market gathers steam, and resign any responsibility for moderating a bull market that may get out of control, and I fear that the market will continue to rise, it will be continuously speculative. As a consequence you get a boom and bust... I think the Fed should settle for just controlling the money supply, not controlling the economy." -- Jeremy Grantham, Chairman of the Board of Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo (GMO).
"Insider selling at Standard & Poor’s 500 Index companies reached a record in the past week as executives took advantage of a two-year high in the stock-market to sell their shares." -- Bloomberg

We have learned nothing from the mistakes of Europe! Nothing!
BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany's undiplomatic outbursts against U.S. policy, calling it "clueless" before a G20 summit, show growing estrangement on economics as America's focus shifts away from transatlantic ties to domestic challenges and Asia.
"The Atlantic is getting wider," said Anton Boerner, head of Germany's Foreign Trade Association, who spoke of a "creeping alienation" between America and Europe, which has been exacerbated by the global financial crisis.
Germany and the United States often criticize each other's approaches to aiding economic recovery, with U.S. calls for more expansive policy falling on deaf ears in fiscally disciplined Germany. But Berlin has taken the rhetoric to a new level.
Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, 68, said last week that the U.S. Federal Reserve decision to buy $600 billion of government bonds undermined U.S. credibility and was "clueless." There was no point, he said, in pumping money into the markets.
China and Brazil were among those echoing his comments but U.S. officials were particularly stung by Schaeuble and German Economy Minister Rainer Bruederle saying the Fed move amounted to "indirect manipulation" of the dollar to boost exports; this at a time when Washington is criticizing China for exactly the same kind of strategy.
"It's not acceptable for the Americans to criticize China for currency manipulation then slyly help the dollar by printing at the Federal Reserve," Schaeuble told Der Spiegel magazine.
Coming ahead of a G20 summit in Seoul where nerves about trade and currency imbalances will top the agenda, the comments were strong even compared to the frank tone that U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner uses with the Germans and others.
"The harsh tones betray major nervousness among top decision makers," said Boerner. "The effects of the financial crisis have made them insecure and afraid."
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke says buying government debt to boost the U.S. economy is important for global growth.
But Chancellor Angela Merkel and her minister "think pretty much alike" even if her language is more moderate, said a German government source. She refrained from using names, for example, when she criticized policy keeping currencies artificially low to boost exports as short-sighted.
Simon Green, a history professor at Aston University in Britain, said the Americans' quantitative easing was a "red flag" to the Germans with their historic fear of inflation.
Germany has made a painful effort to get competitive in the past decade of slow growth and stagnant wages and is unhappy to see "the Americans saying 'let's throw on the press, print money and get competitive that way,'" said Green.
POOR COMMUNICATION
One regional German paper, the Hannoversche Allgemeine, came to the conclusion that "never before has the Merkel government had such a direct confrontation with the United States."
Merkel's center-left predecessor Gerhard Schroeder came into conflict with President George W. Bush for criticizing the war in Iraq. The arrival of conservative Merkel raised great hopes in Washington and she got on well personally with Bush.
But the chancellor and Bush's successor Barack Obama have always had a difficult time communicating, said William Drozdiak of the American Council on Germany.
While they broadly agree on many geopolitical issues like Iran and Afghanistan, there are differences in the approach to security and, most significantly, Merkel has doggedly refused U.S. overtures to fire up domestic economic demand in Germany.
"On economic policy there is no dissonance with Europe as a whole, but rather with successful EU states like Germany," said Hans-Ulrich Klose, head of German cooperation with Washington and deputy head of parliament's foreign affairs committee.
After his mid-term election defeat, Obama's priority is to boost jobs via exports by whatever means, said Klose, who while stressing the shared values and Obama's popularity in Germany, sees Washington with "a quietly protectionist frame of mind."
U.S. diplomats are trying to convince Germany "Europeans are the best partner the U.S. could have," as Assistant Secretary of State Philip Gordon said on a recent visit to Berlin.
"But the danger is that anti-American sentiment in Germany could grow," said Klose.
At the Center for American Progress in Washington, Michael Werz said U.S.-German tensions reflect difficulties adjusting as Asia and other developing areas outstrip Europe and America in economic and demographic growth and divert their attention.
"The census shows the U.S. population's center of gravity is shifting 20 meters a day away from the north-east toward the south-west due to immigration from Asia and the South," he said.
On top of that, Obama lacks the instinctive European focus of some of his predecessors like Bill Clinton, said Green. But it is also "part of a mature bilateral relationship to recognize the fact that they are not exclusively focused on each other."
"QE2 can't end right. Worthless paper after endless paper.... What's good for the equity markets is not necessarily good for the economy. The equity markets are not going to create jobs. If you have a paper bag full of money are you going to go out and hire workers and take risk with healthcare and all these other regulatory restrictions? No, you are going to go ahead and buy high yield, you will buy equities, you will buy risk assets. The fallacy in the whole thing is that you are not going to go ahead and create jobs just by pushing up the market by 20%, 15%. In fact, to some degree by pushing up commodity price to levels that are going to be obscene, which is what is going to happen, you are hurting everybody in mainstream America... If you have all this money coming into the system, and this money stays in the equity and commodity markets, when at some point you take this money out of the system, where is this money going to come out of? Parabolic moves have Parabolic corrections. This is going to end bad. It is not a matter of if, just a matter of when. This is going to be the ultimate bubble, this is going to make 2000 look like a cakewalk. This is going to be the bubble of all bubbles."
by Elizabeth McDonald on Fox Business:
from Bloomberg:
In a speech Monday, Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh questioned whether the government's decision to spend $600 billion on bonds would have lasting positive effects on the economy, the Associated Press reported. The comments are somewhat surprising considering that Walsh, an ally of Chairman Ben Bernanke, voted for the plan.
Speaking at the annual meeting of the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association in New York, Warsh said government bond buying could cause longer term inflation because of a weakening dollar and higher commodity prices. The government may be better off reforming the tax code to incentivize companies to boost investment, he added. "Additional monetary policy measures are, at best, poor substitutes for more powerful pro-growth policies," he said.
from Bloomberg:
The life-support system for Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain is now under threat. The highly indebted nations of the euro area can’t survive the deficit crisis without access to central-bank credit.
Last month’s Franco-German agreement at Deauville, France, and the statement of European leaders on Oct. 29 have changed the ground rules for euro-area debt.
All 27 member states have now signed up to the need for a revision of the Lisbon Treaty in exchange for a permanent crisis-resolution mechanism. The key new element is that Europe’s leaders have specifically said that future rescues might involve private creditors.
"For the next eight months, the nation’s central bank will be monetizing the federal debt." Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher
from FT.com:
Germany has put itself on a collision course with the US over the global economy, after its finance minister launched an extraordinary attack on policies being pursued in Washington.
Wolfgang Schäuble accused the US of undermining its policymaking credibility, increasing global economic uncertainty and of hypocrisy over exchange rates. The US economic growth model was in a “deep crisis,” he also warned over the weekend.
from Reuters:
NEW DELHI, Nov 8 (Reuters) - U.S. President Barack Obama defended the Federal Reserve's policy of printing dollars on Monday after China and Russia stepped up criticism ahead of this week's Group of 20 meeting.
The G20 summit has been pitched as a chance for leaders of the countries that account for 85 percent of world output to prevent a currency row escalating into a rush to protectionism that could imperil the global recovery.
But there is little sign of consensus.
The summit has been overshadowed by disagreements over the U.S. Federal Reserve's quantitative easing (QE) policy under which it will print money to buy $600 billion of government bonds, a move that could depress the dollar and cause a potentially destabilising flow of money into emerging economies.
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) –- The president of the World Bank said in a newspaper editorial Monday that the Group of 20 leading economies should consider adopting a global reserve currency based on gold as part of structural reforms to the world’s foreign-exchange regime.
World Bank chief Robert Zoellick said in an article the Financial Times that leading economies should consider “employing gold as an international reference point of market expectations about inflation, deflation and future currency values.”
Zoellick made the proposal as part of reforms to be considered at this week’s G-20 meeting in Seoul.
“Although textbooks may view gold as the old money, markets are using gold as an alternative monetary asset today,” said Zoellick.
He said such a reform would reflect economic realities and should be considered as a successor to the existing global currency paradigm known as “Bretton Woods II.”
Bretton Woods II refers to the system which began in 1971, when U.S. President Nixon ended the dollar’s link to gold as established under the Bretton Woods agreement.
Zoellick said a return to some sort of currency link to gold would be “practical and feasible, not radical.”
“This new system is likely to need to involve the dollar, the euro, the yen, the pound and a renminbi that moves towards internationalization and then an open capital account,” he said.
"Stock prices rose and long-term interest rates fell when investors began to anticipate the most recent action. Easier financial conditions will promote economic growth. For example, lower mortgage rates will make housing more affordable and allow more homeowners to refinance. Lower corporate bond rates will encourage investment. And higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending. Increased spending will lead to higher incomes and profits that, in a virtuous circle, will further support economic expansion."