From a post on MSN Money by a fellow trader:
The crisis will be over when all of the following conditions are met:
- The US runs a surplus without having to pull the surplus monies out of social security and medicare (refer to the 'Clinton ran a surplus' myth that refuses to die).
- No organization is considered 'too big to fail'.
- Jobs are being created at a sustained rate of 30,000/mo. over a period of at least three months.
- Food prices have stabilized (over the past year, the national increase is ~19%).
- By some miracle, foreign powers decide to hold on to their US bonds. At this point, I would consider anything less than 5% inflation by the end of 2009 to be both a) a miracle, and b) a sign of economic recovery.
- The US government halts overt activities to suppress the price of gold and silver.
- The major banks' debt is made completely public, and turns out to be less than the complete market cap for the industry. This is also in miracle territory.
In all honesty, though, I wouldn't expect to see any two of the seven aforementioned come to fruition. Things are getting exponentially worse, not better. The sign of economic recovery that I expect:
Martial law is imposed.
