Cap and Trade Could Double or Triple Utility Rates -- And the Price of Everything Else,Too!

The proposed Obama cap and trade bill could cause electrical and natural gas utility rates to double or triple, attendees were told at a recent trade association meeting. Mr. Obama himself said in a radio interview that his cap and trade proposal would cause electrical utility rates to "skyrocket". That word "skyrocket" was his, not mine! He used that exact word -- skyrocket! He also said that consumers would see a dramatic increase in their cost of living! He has indicated that he wants the bill passed by Memorial Day, just two months from now!

Most people have no idea how expensive this bill will be to them. Consider how the cap and trade tax will affect the price of a can of peas like the one shown. I bought some on sale at the grocery store a week ago at a price of 2 cans for $1. Here is how the cap and trade tax will affect not only this can of peas, but everything consumers buy:

• Grocery Stores - The grocery store will have a utility bill that is 2-3 times higher than today. They will be forced to add this cost to every item in the grocery store to compensate for the higher cost. Think for a moment about the electricity used in a modern grocery store. Lights everywhere, freezers that may be one hundred feet long and seven feet tall, refrigerated meat and deli department displays, produce displays that are refrigerated and that spray water to keep the vegetables fresh, a bakery department that has very large ovens that are baking nearly around the clock, and checkout stands with registers and scanners are all huge consumers of electricity. Needless to say, this will add cost to the price of our can of peas.
  
• Truckers - The hardest hit industry by the cap and trade tax will be the truckers who consume immense amounts of gasoline to transport food to the grocery store. They will almost certainly have to double their shipping rates to compensate for the new tax. This must be added to the price of our can of peas.
• Manufacturers - The company that manufactures the can of peas will be faced with utility rates that are 2-3 times the current cost. The machinery that cleans the peas, cooks them, seals the cans, applies the label, and routes the cans to the boxing and shipping departments will all cost the manufacturer more money to power them. This will add to the cost of our can of peas.
• Farmers - The farmer will also be hit hard by the higher cost of fuel. They don't plant 1 million seeds by hand! The huge machinery that tills the soil, plants the seeds, applies the fertilizer, and harvests the crop will all incur much higher costs due to the cap and trade tax. In addition, many people are surprised to learn the modern fertilizer is made from crude oil and/or natural gas. This fertilizer will also cost significantly more to produce! This higher cost to grow the peas will also add significantly to the price of our can of peas.
• The Can Manufacturer - The company that manufactures the can will incur similar higher costs just as the canning company.
• Inflation on Steroids - Imagine the ripple effect as the doubling or tripling of the cost of energy cascades through the economy, with each ripple adding higher costs. The potential for inflation is mind-boggling to contemplate!
  

Needless to say, a can of peas will soon cost considerably more than 2 for $1! Stock up now, because everything you buy or eat will soon cost much more!

Crude Oil Swells With Stock Closing Rally

Crude oil reached $46/barrel today. The daily chart (not shown) is showing similar signs of life again!

Closing Rally Turns Stocks Positive for Day

Natural Gas Breaks Below $4 Price Barrier

I never thought I would see the day that the price of natural gas would drop below $4, but the chart doesn't lie. Declining factory demand in the United States for natural gas is causing the price to drop lower and lower, even while the price of crude oil begins to climb.

Mr. President, Will This Be Your Legacy?

This chart shows the Dow since the beginning of 2009. Down, down, down! I can count the number of up days in the past 30 days on one hand -- with a few fingers left over!

LIBOR Rising, Unobstructed By Government

This chart shows the Eurodollar futures, which are very liquid, with more than 1 million contracts of open interest. It is linked to LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate), which is the rate that U.S. Dollar deposits earn on accounts outside the United States. In an era in which the Federal Reserve artificially manipulates interest rates through quantitative easing, LIBOR and the Eurodollar futures are a more accurate barometer of unobstructed interest rates.

This daily chart shows that Eurodollar futures are gradually, but slowly declining in value because of rising interest rates that investors are demanding to assume the rapidly-expanding risk of investing in dollar-denominated debt, and especially U.S. government debt. With the U.S. treasury planning to borrow about $2 trillion this year, investors are showing increasing skittishness at the idea of accepting this risk without hiking the interest they earn in compensation.

Today's candle indicates a possible breakout is imminent, with "unobstructed" interest rates potentially rising much more rapidly. The long wick on today's candle, however, is somewhat worrisome, since it may form a hammer, a reversal signal. I love to trade the Eurodollar futures because they are very liquid, and move fairly slowly. I consider it to be "easy money".

Great WSJ Editorial by Michael Boskin of Stanford University

This was very good from the WSJ today:

It's hard not to see the continued sell-off on Wall Street and the growing fear on Main Street as a product, at least in part, of the realization that our new president's policies are designed to radically re-engineer the market-based U.S. economy, not just mitigate the recession and financial crisis.

The illusion that Barack Obama will lead from the economic center has quickly come to an end. Instead of combining the best policies of past Democratic presidents -- John Kennedy on taxes, Bill Clinton on welfare reform and a balanced budget, for instance -- President Obama is returning to Jimmy Carter's higher taxes and Mr. Clinton's draconian defense drawdown.

Mr. Obama's $3.6 trillion budget blueprint, by his own admission, redefines the role of government in our economy and society. The budget more than doubles the national debt held by the public, adding more to the debt than all previous presidents -- from George Washington to George W. Bush -- combined. It reduces defense spending to a level not sustained since the dangerous days before World War II, while increasing nondefense spending (relative to GDP) to the highest level in U.S. history. And it would raise taxes to historically high levels (again, relative to GDP).

Read the entire article here.

Stock Rally Turns Negative

From boom to bust. I had a hunch this would happen.

Stocks Begin to Rally Following Employment Report

When the rally begins to fizzle, I'll be the first in line to sell. I still expect a bear market rally, and feel in my bones that stocks are oversold, but I still think the most prudent position is to be short in this market.

Gold Explodes With Unemployment Rate

Gold has risen $35/oz. since yesterday morning, including another surge upon release of the unemployment data this morning! Unemployment rose to 8.1%, slightly higher than expected, but the headline employment loss figure was almost exactly as expected. I don't trade immediately at the release of important news because the market is too volatile -- in an erratic sort of way. I will wait until at least 30 minutes later until I know what the market reaction is. I will continue to sell the rallies for the time being.

The one trend in today's unemployment data that stands out in my mind was missed entirely by the talking heads on the business cable news channels. There is a strong emerging trend of large downward revisions to previous months' unemployment data. That's not good!

Fear Index Takes Off!

What is the fear index? Gold and treasuries!

Treasuries
Gold - up $30 today!

Stocks Go South -- Even Faster!

Stocks Dip to New Lows

Gold Rebounds Off Lower Trend Line

And look at the daily chart:
The price of gold has now broken through the high from yesterday, and appears poised to begin building toward a new upward trend if prices remain at this level into the close. Gold is $20 higher today!

Holding Off Tuesday's Lows So Far

Jim Rogers on Oil, Currencies, Obama

"Jim Rogers is the Indiana Jones of Investing" - Time Magazine

Jim Rogers quote in a Reuters interview this week:

“None of which does much for the economy down the road. It’s trying to postpone some pain we’re going to have to take,”

U.S. stocks may rally because of the enormous amount of money the government is pumping into the U.S. economy, but “it’s not going to last,” Rogers said.

“I don’t think the bottom is here, maybe ‘a’ bottom, but not ‘the’ bottom. The economy is going to get worse. You can’t have a good stock market without a good economy,” he said.

On Crude Oil:


On Currencies:


On Obama:


On Agriculture:

Jim Rogers on "Financial Armageddon"?

Wow! Interesting videos these! More insight from one of the world's most successful and now, controversial, investors!

T. Boone Pickens: "Oil at $60 Before Oil Below $40"

The price of crude oil has shown good signs of a rebound. In an interview this morning on CNBC, Pickens predicted that the price of crude oil would rebound to $60/barrel before it drops below $40/barrel again. He also indicated that oil and natural gas companies are "on their backs" because the price of crude is now below the cost to produce it, and the oil companies are being forced to shut down wells to cut their costs.

OPEC is determined to cut production until the price of crude oil rebounds to at least $60/barrel. The price of crude oil is showing signs of responding higher.

Yesterday, Treasury Secretary Geithner issued the sharpest attack yet on use of oil and natural gas (which until now has been considered to be a clean fuel), suggesting that they must be taxed at higher rates because they are blamed for what they believe is human-caused global warming. Pres. Obama, in an interview in San Francisco during the presidential campaign, said that his cap and trade progam would also cause electricity rates to "skyrocket", and would significantly affect the cost consumers pay for energy in their homes.

Jim Rogers -- They're Ruining the US Economy

Two great new Jim Rogers video clips from CNBC, in two parts. I always enjoy Jim Rogers because he is, at once, both entertaining and insightful. He is a great teacher -- plainspoken and clear, and he speaks in terms that even the average person on main street can understand. And he pulls no punches, either!

"When you blame others, you give up your power to change." -Robert Anthony

Stocks Give Up Yesterday's Gains

Upon the announcement that China will not create an additional stimulus plan, stocks have reversed and have now given up all of yesterday's gains, with prices near the lows of the day. We are also within only about 10 points of the previous low March 3rd. Citigroup has now reached the $1 price, and may be ejected from the Dow. Bank of America is also at risk of the same fate.

Gold Price Nears Lower Trend Line

The next few days will be critical for gold, as we have now reached the lower trend line. Today, gold is trading higher for the first time in eight days. Yesterday, we also traded higher for awhile too, so it is too early in the day to draw any firm conclusions. So far, the price of gold has not breached yesterday's high. If we close higher today, then it will be a sign that we have may reached the bottom, or are very close to it.

In a deflationary environment, I would expect that eventually, the price of gold will also plunge. Gold, as an indicator for fear and/or inflation, is sensitive to shifts in sentiment regarding either one of these -- fear or inflation.

Harvard Economics Professor Says 20% Chance of Depression

From the WSJ editorial page:

The bottom line is that there is ample reason to worry about slipping into a depression. There is a roughly one-in-five chance that U.S. GDP and consumption will fall by 10% or more, something not seen since the early 1930s.

Here is the full story.

Stocks: OK, So Maybe Not

Another roller coaster day in stocks. In an environment like this, many traders, including me, are selling into the rallies. I still expect a rally soon, however. But then, I've been expecting one since November!

Stocks Rally (Finally) on ADP Jobs Report, Obama Mortgage Bailout

Bailout Du Jour

I haven't heard the details yet, but the Obama administration has announced a new bailout plan for mortgages. Frankly, the details are irrelevant, since the only thing that matters is its impact on the financial markets. It appears to be giving some life to the stock market.

Stock Futures Continue to Fall After Market Close

Stock futures continued to plunge even lower after the close of the stock market exchanges. In fact, the Dow has plunged twice as much in after hours trading than it did during the entire trading day, but have now recovered some of that.

Stocks: And Then, the Selling Returns

As the White House Press Secretary began to speak, the stock markets began to sell off again.

WSJ: This is Now Obama's Recession

From the WSJ today:

"As 2009 opened, three weeks before Barack Obama took office, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 9034 on January 2, its highest level since the autumn panic. Yesterday the Dow fell another 4.24% to 6763, for an overall decline of 25% in two months and to its lowest level since 1997. The dismaying message here is that President Obama's policies have become part of the economy's problem.

"Americans have welcomed the Obama era in the same spirit of hope the President campaigned on. But after five weeks in office, it's become clear that Mr. Obama's policies are slowing, if not stopping, what would otherwise be the normal process of economic recovery. From punishing business to squandering scarce national public resources, Team Obama is creating more uncertainty and less confidence -- and thus a longer period of recession or subpar growth...

"So what has happened in the last two months? The economy has received no great new outside shock. Exchange rates and other prices have been stable, and there are no security crises of note...

"What is new is the unveiling of Mr. Obama's agenda and his approach to governance. Every new President has a finite stock of capital -- financial and political -- to deploy, and amid recession Mr. Obama has more than most. But one negative revelation has been the way he has chosen to spend his scarce resources on income transfers rather than growth promotion. Most of his "stimulus" spending was devoted to social programs, rather than public works, and nearly all of the tax cuts were devoted to income maintenance rather than to improving incentives to work or invest...

"The market has notably plunged since Mr. Obama introduced his budget last week, and that should be no surprise. The document was a declaration of hostility toward capitalists across the economy...

Read the entire commentary here.

Quite honestly, Geithner's testimony before Congress today has not given me any assurance that this animosity toward capital and investment is going to change any time soon. Neither did Bernanke's. The attitudes and priorities reflected by the Obama Administration over the past few weeks and months (since the elections) have made me increasingly concerned that the United States is now headed down a path that will be painful and destructive. I've seen nothing lately to change that perception. In fact, it has deepened!

For the record: I didn't vote for Bush in the last election, nor McCain in this one!
I am not a registered Republican or Democrat. I'm equally disgusted with both parties!

Finally, A Small Rally!

We've waited far too long for a reason to rally during the testimony of any government official. This market is aching for a reason to bounce and see some buying! I see nothing that could be perceived in Geithner's testimony as positive, but if the market says "buy", who am I to argue?

S&P 500 Drops Below 700 Level

The S&P 500 stock index has now crossed another threshold, dipping below the 700 level for the first time since October 1996. Unfortunately, it shows no signs of slowing, either.

Stocks Turn Negative As Bernanke Testifies

After seeing stocks rally overnight, the stock index futures began to decline as Chairman Bernanke began his testimony before Congress. Just moments ago, the stock index futures turned negative for the day. And to think that I thought we might see a rally soon!

Mr. Bernanke is taking a great deal of heat from an irate Senate. I hope they have a good air conditioning system. He is clearly uncomfortable, and his fidgety responses and evasive speech clearly shows that discomfort. I also couldn't help but notice that stocks really started to accelerate downward as the interplay between Chairman Bernanke and the Senators became increasingly strident and Mr. Bernanke increased his unwillingness to provide clear and nonevasive answers. It only fuels the fire of worry in the financial markets when this occurs.

Gold Continues Plunge Toward Lower Trend Line

Gold continues to slide today in a fervent and forceful retracement toward the lower trend line. However, gold still remains within a bull trend. The following two charts clearly depict this retracement and bull trend. Depending upon when the price reaches that lower trend line, it should occur somewhere in the range of $850-$900/oz. Of course, global events could always change the course of prices at any times. Anything can happen!

Intraday chart
Daily chart

S&P 500 Down 55.22% From '07 Peak

The S&P 500 is down 22.14% since the beginning of 2008, the worst since the Great Depression. The stock market feels somewhat oversold to me. Stock futures moved higher overnight, but have cut those gains by about 2/3. My gut tells me that we are due for a correction sometime soon. We are ripe for one of the "false dawns" that was mentioned by Hoisington Management in one of my posts a few weeks ago. It will be temporary!

I don't believe that we are ready for a solid or sustained recovery yet. I don't even believe that the worst is yet over. Circumstances are going to get much worse before we see a sustained recovery.

Speculation in Commodity Markets

Here are three articles on the subject. One is from the Wall Street Journal, a second is from Econbrowser, and the third is the executive summary of a study commissioned by Informa Economics.

From the Wall Street Journal:

"It was said to be the year of speculators gone wild. Seemingly everyone in Washington, including Barack Obama and John McCain, decided that oil prices were soaring because profiteers and middlemen were manipulating the futures markets. "Speculators" were spotted everywhere this side of the grassy knoll.

"The only problem is that there's no evidence to support the conspiracy theories..."

Here is the full story.

From Econbrowser by Scott Irwin (the full article is a quite lengthy and exhaustive rebuttal of the opinion touted by politicians of Michael Masters), who holds the Laurence J. Norton Chair of Agricultural Marketing at the University of Illinois:

"My purpose in writing this post is to show that Mr. Masters' bubble argument does not withstand close scrutiny. He first makes the non-controversial observation that a very large pool of speculative money has been invested in different types of commodity derivatives over the last several years. The controversial part is that Mr. Masters concludes that money flows of this size must have resulted in significant upward pressure on commodity prices, which in turn drove up energy and food prices to consumers throughout the world. This argument is conceptually flawed and reflects a fundamental and basic misunderstanding of how commodity futures and related derivatives markets actually work. It is important to refute Mr. Masters' argument since a number of bills have been introduced in the U.S. Congress with the purpose of prohibiting or limiting index fund speculation in commodity futures and OTC derivative markets.

Here is the full writeup.

From Informa Economics:

General Finding: After a lengthy and detailed analysis of the data provided, Informa found very little evidence that the trader groups of interest, index funds and managed money, were routinely detrimental to any of the studied markets. All of the trader groups displayed instances of non-optimal behavior (including small traders), but none were consistently harmful to the studied markets.

Here is the full Executive Summary. There are some very interesting findings in abbreviated form on this page. Very good and to-the-point!

John Mauldin on the Federal Budget and Deficits

Also from John Mauldin:

Further, Obama's accounting magicians assume that the US economy is going to grow by 1.2% this year and 3.2% next year and at a blistering 4% pace after that. Since that is not likely to happen, the deficits will be far worse than projected. Since large taxpayers can see the tax increase coming, it is likely that they will shift behavior, and tax revenues will be less than projected.

Several analysts have noted that you could tax 100% of the income of the "wealthy" and still not balance this budget. While the bottom 95% may not see their taxes rise this year, you can bet they will see them rise in the future. While the US can run multi-trillion-dollar deficits for a few years, it cannot run them for long without serious consequences for interest rates and inflation. And when our entitlement program problems hit in the middle of the next decade? You can count on higher taxes.

Just as a fragile economy is ready to pick itself back up, a large series of tax increases will help slow it down and may push us back into recession.

Read and subscribe to Mauldin's newsletter here.

Whether or not I agree with Mauldin's assessment is irrelevant. The important thing is to be prepared.

Cap and Trade: The Hidden, Monumental New Tax on the Poor and Elderly

From John Mauldin's newsletter:

This week saw President Obama give us a budget with a projected deficit of $1.75 trillion dollars, and a massive tax increase on the "wealthy." But hidden in the details was an even larger tax increase on everyone. Obama wants to create a cap-and-trade program for carbon emissions. This is expected to generate $79 billion in 2012, $237 billion by 2014, and grow to $646 billion by 2019. These will be payments by energy (primarily utility) companies to the government. That will cause utilities to have to raise the prices they charge customers for energy. Such a level of taxation is eventually 4-5% of total US GDP. That is not small potatoes. And since the wealthy do not use all that much more power than the rest of us, it will affect the lower incomes disproportionately.

It will take money out of consumers' pockets and transfer it to the government. You can call it cap-and-trade, but it is a tax. And a huge one. Anything that will take 4% of GDP away from consumer spending is not business friendly. And by driving the cost of energy up, it will drive high-energy-using businesses away from the US to developing countries where energy is cheaper. It will make it even harder for people to save money and drive up costs for the elderly and retired. But it will make the environmental lobby happy.

Dow Off 300 More

Dow closed down just under 300 points today. Who would have ever believed it two years ago?

Gold Recovers to Flat

Pure Panic!

Treasuries Through the Roof!

Are We Perhaps Seeing a New Round of Mass Liquidations?

It appears to me -- and this is purely opinion -- that we are beginning to see a new round of forced liquidations in the financial markets. As evidence of the phenomenon, we are seeing liquidation of gold even in the face of great fear and panic. This suggests liquidations due to necessity rather than expediency! Treasuries are rising very rapidly, however, as investors flee to what they believe is the relative safety of U.S. government debt.

Grains Plunge Through Support

It appears we are now seeing a new round of selling in grains. This is not based upon fundamentals. This is panic selling! Grain prices have now broken through support across the entire sector. We have now broken through the 76% fibonacci retracement level and are headed for the testing the December 5th price lows for the entire soybean complex and wheat, leaving only corn hanging on by a thread at the 76% fibonacci retracement level. This is a very thin thread, since the 75% fibonacci level is not generally considered to be one of significance.

However, corn has broken through the $3.50 price support level on even the May '09 contract, and prices have plunged below both the $3.50 and $3.49 price support levels on the soon-to-expire March '09 contract.

Wall Street Runs Red With Blood

The news from last night and today of AIG's losses and the announcement of the new $30 billion bailout package have driven Wall Street to run with red ink today. The Dow is down about 200 points and with no end in sight! We are watching the lifeblood of our financial system ebb away while the government commits greater and greater taxpayer monies to try to stem the tide. It's not working! We're just throwing more good money after bad!

Last Week's Crude Rally Yields to Economic Weakness

Crude oil overnight has yielded to the continuing news of economic weakness. I am anticipating more consolidation trading for the foreseeable future, until the economy begins to rebound. My crude oil trades are short-term only for now -- only a few days! This is a trader's market!

Jim Rogers: "Mr. Bernanke Has Never Been Right" and "Become a Farmer"

I thought this interview was quite humorous, albeit true!

Bonds and Gold: Buying Safety

10-year Treasuries
Gold
From Bloomberg:

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell three basis points to 2.98 percent in London, according to BGCantor Market Data. Bullion for immediate delivery rose as much as 1.7 percent to $958.51 an ounce in London as investors sought assets perceived as safe.

Buffett Says 2009 Economy "In Shambles"

From Bloomberg:

Billionaire Warren Buffett said the economy will be “in shambles” for the rest of this year as financial firms take losses tied to reckless loans made during the housing boom.

Of course, even the legendary Warren Buffett makes bad bets. 2008 was his worsst-performing year in his long investment history. Earnings were down 96% for the year!

Here is the full story.

Jim Rogers On What to Own Right Now

I just try to be long things that are going to do better than the things that I am short on. By the way the best sector in the world that I know right now is probably agriculture. Everybody should become a farmer. Farming is going to be one of the greatest industries of our time for the next 20 to 30 years.

It has been finance and paper shuffling and money, now it is going to be real things and real assets.
The only sector that I know the fundamentals are improving are commodities. Many farmers in the world cannot get loans for fertilizers now, inventories of food are at 50 year lows.

Nobody can get a loan to open a mine, oil reserves are declining around the world at a fairly rapid rate, the fundamentals because of the supply of commodities is the only thing I know that is getting better.

If you need to own something I would suggest to you to learn how to own commodities and selling stocks short.

I still own my US dollars. I plan to get out of the US dollar some time this year. It seems that the short covering rally, it is an artificial rally, people are forced to cover their shorts in the US dollar and there were huge short positions.

- Jim Rogers

Bank Bloodbath

Equity markets around the world are shedding even more blood overnight. European banks are leading the way, with losses in the 2.5-4% range being common. Asian markets are also sharply down 3-5% in overnight trading.

Euro Lower on Failure of Eastern Europe Bailout Package

From Bloomberg:

The euro fell to a one-week low against the dollar after European Union leaders rejected calls to back an aid package for eastern Europe, fueling concern the financial crisis will deepen the region’s recession.

Europe’s single currency dropped for a second day versus the greenback as EU leaders vetoed Hungary’s proposals for 180 billion euros ($227 billion) of loans to ex-communist economies in eastern Europe. The Polish zloty, Hungarian forint and Czech koruna slipped to the lowest in about a week against the dollar. The Swedish krona fell to a record versus the euro.

“We have to prepare for autonomous weakness of the euro this week,” said Hans-Guenter Redeker, the London-based chief currency strategist for BNP Paribas SA. “This shows European countries are behind the curve. They are acting against a global crisis with national measures.”

Here is the full story.

Daily Down

This daily chart for stocks shows how sharply downward the business climate has been since the year 2009 began. This is not what I would consider to be a pretty picture! When will it stop?

AIG to Report -- Post Bailout -- $60 Billion Q4 Loss!

News wires have just released an announcement that AIG will announce a one-quarter loss of more than $60 billion. This may be what's weighing down stocks tonight. Even if it isn't, it can only make it worse. Unbelievable!

Prominent Economists Predict No Recovery 'Til 2010 -- Or Later!

From Bloomberg:

"The U.S. recession, now in its 15th month, will probably continue well into 2010 or beyond, several prominent economists wrote in today’s New York Times...
"Any “whiffs of growth” this year “are likely to herald a false dawn” because of the poor financial condition of consumers, wrote Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia. He predicted the economy won’t begin to expand again until late 2010 or early 2011...
"Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted the current financial and economic crises, said the recession may last a total of 36 months. It’s possible, he wrote, that the slump, instead of following a typical “U” shape back toward growth, “may turn into a more virulent L-shaped near depression.”

Here is the full story.

Continued Drop in Stocks

The Dow is now down over 100 points, and appears to be showing signs of acceleration downward.

Stocks Down in Sunday Evening Trading, Dow Trading Below 7000!