I am back to trading the grains today, mainly because they have good liquidity and strong momentum. I expected that there would be stiff support outside the current trading ranges that might push corn and soybean prices back within those very tight recent trading ranges. That is exactly what has happened today. If the momentum is strong enough, it make push margin requirement higher again.
Friday, May 30, 2008
Stock, Treasury Futures Too Erratic
I am back to trading the grains today, mainly because they have good liquidity and strong momentum. I expected that there would be stiff support outside the current trading ranges that might push corn and soybean prices back within those very tight recent trading ranges. That is exactly what has happened today. If the momentum is strong enough, it make push margin requirement higher again.
Monumental Momentum in Grains
Wow! What a rebound!
With the exception of a temporary sell-off for wheat mid-session, all three major grain products rebounded with strong momentum today. Corn and soybeans went up and never looked back. Both have recovered to well within their recent trading ranges. Good day for grains!
Corn
Soybeans
Wheat
Corn, Soybeans Rebound Back Inside Trading Ranges
The forceful sell-off of both corn and soybeans yesterday suggested the possibility of a bearish break-out. However, today, both have rebounded higher to within the recent tight trading ranges for each. On the left chart here for each of them, we are seeing the very tight trading ranges of recent days, and on the right side, we are seeing today's rebound. Despite both being trapped within a very tight trading range with very low volatility for the past several weeks, the CME hasn't lowered the limit amounts, although they have lowered margin requirements within the past few days.
Wheat prices have also rebounded today, but unlike corn and soybeans, wheat still remains in a downtrend.
Corn - prices still appear a little soft
Soybeans
Thursday, May 29, 2008
Focus: Be Here Now -- The Power of the Mind!
For the past few weeks, I have been pondering upon the power of the mind. I am now convinced that much of what we accomplish in life will be directly related to our thoughts. I have read and strongly recommend the book "As a Man Thinketh" by James Allen. I have also been particularly fascinated with the parable in Luke 18 of the Bible that is known as the Parable of the Unjust Judge. While it is not very commonly known, it is one of my favorites. Jesus told the parable and told his followers that its purpose was "that men ought always to pray, and not to faint" (Luke 18:1). I have found that this commandment to pray always is closely related to this concept of controlling our minds.When I was in my early college days, the school required that I attend a class on developing good study habits. In the text for the class, I remember being fascinated with a chapter called, "Be Here Now". In this chapter, the author discussed the need for students to manage and direct their thoughts toward ends that would yield positive results. He talked about how we are constantly finding our thoughts "straying" toward unwanted, unfocused, and even unintended directions. We lose them. I suppose that yes, we "lose our minds" when we lose our focus. We don't suddenly become raving lunatics, but instead of acting, we become acted upon. We allow others, perhaps even from realms unseen, to refocus us toward their objectives rather than our own. What I am suggesting here, then, is more than turning from thoughts of vice; I am talking about keeping them riveted on accomplishment of good, whether it is improving the conditions of our families, achieving world peace, or making a livelihood in the financial markets.
This is what was meant by the author of the chapter when he told us to "be here now". He said that as we recognize that our thoughts have strayed, we must once again take control of our attention and return it to our own ends. We must gently retake our thoughts and return them to focus on our own ends, thus acting rather than being acted upon. We must train ourselves to act rather than to react. We must gently, gradually train ourselves to be in the moment without distraction. We must "be here now".
One of my objectives, as I move forward with my trading career, is to "be here now". It is to manage the focus of my attention and thoughts toward my goals, both financial, behavioral, and emotional. This will improve my trading. Better yet, it will improve my life!
Slight Blog Redesign
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
Stocks Struggle to Stay Above Water
Meanwhile, the stock indexes are struggling to keep their heads above water. Yesterday's settlement price is the turquoise-colored line on the left chart. As long as crude oil prices remain strong, I don't believe stocks will be able to sustain a rally. I have been trading primarily the Dow and 10-year treasury indexes for the past two weeks, with a few grain trades thrown in for good measure.Soybeans Rally to Midlin Space
Soybean prices have rallied slightly along with crude oil, but are only slightly above yesterday's settlement price. Grain trading today has been listless and with little conviction to move the market in one direction or another. This is a very weak rally.Which would you rather try to trade?
Radio Static, or...

A Sine Wave?
Crude Oil Recovery Saps Energy From Stock Rally
Crude Oil
S&P 500
Stock Sizzle Turns to Fizzle?
The stock market rally that was fueled by the durable goods news has failed to follow through, and has now moved back to flat, as shown on the left chart above by the turquoise-colored line. Has the stock market sizzle now turned into a stock market fizzle? This is somewhat disappointing.Treasuries Near Interest Rate Breakout
This chart shows a strong drop in prices today, with a commensurate rise in interest rates. There appears to be fairly firm support at a rate just below 4% for the 10-year treasuries. If prices break downward through this interest rate barrier, we may see a bear market in treasuries. I will be watching this development very carefully. Trends in treasuries and interest rates tend to be some of the longest-lasting ones.Grains Move Lower, Bucking Bullish USDA Data
The USDA announced that saturated soil conditions have held corn seedling emergence to a frightening deficit of 46 points at this point in the planting season. Likewise, soybeans emergence is a very soft 12% so far, with soybean planting at only 52% of normal for this point in the season. Often, farmers will plant soybeans following the wheat harvest, but cooler and wetter soil conditions are delaying the wheat as well, reducing the probability of double-cropping this year. All this tends to be supportive of prices, but heavy selling in the crude oil markets is having a spill-over effect in grains.

Dollar Finds Footing
The Dollar has once again found its footing at a price point close to its all-time low. It is once again on the rise. The lower crude oil price and stronger Dollar is helping to fuel a stock market futures rally this morning. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a triple-digit up day for the Dow. We find out over the next several hours. There is never a dull moment in the financial world. If the market moves against someone today, sentiment a few days later can bring with it huge shifts in what is popular. Traders must therefore be quite fleet of foot and maintain a keen eye toward market sentiment at all times.Crude Crumbles, Thanks to the Saudis
After the dramatic parabolic rise of the price of crude oil last week to $135/barrel following the U.S. government reports of huge draw-downs in inventory, this week there is an entirely different sentiment, fueled today by the announcement of the Saudis that they will supply more crude oil to world markets. What a difference a day makes!
The Saudis have expressed the belief that the correct price for crude oil is between $60 and $70 per barrel. While I don't hold such a bearish opinion for crude oil prices, I would certainly feel inclined to join in the chorus of crude oil consumers who would thank the Saudis for helping to collapsed an overheated crude oil price.
The only question now is: Why did it take them so long?
Durable "Good"
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Interest Rates on Hold
While treasury prices are mixed today on weak economic data, this daily chart suggests that treasuries are still in a holding pattern. This often makes trading somewhat difficult.
Corn, Soybeans Plunge with Crude Oil
What Happened to the Canadian Dollar?

Hint: The fate of the Canadian Dollar is closely tied to its exports in oil. The Canadian Dollar is considered to be one of the "commodity" currencies, because the value of the currency, like the Canadian economy, is closely tied to the value of its commodity exports.
This chart shows the US Dollar paired against the Canadian Dollar, so this chart moves inversely to the value of the Canadian Dollar, also known as the Loonie.
US Dollar Rallies -- For Once!
A rally today of the US Dollar may also be contributing to the sell-off in crude oil. Or is the sell-off in crude contributing to today's rally in the US Dollar? The 120 minute chart on the left seems to signal that the US Dollar is struggling to form --- and sustain -- a floor in the 71.75-72.00 range.Gold Plunges Too!
I always view sell-offs in the gold markets as an opportunity to buy. Gold is down today by about $25/ounce, and it is almost certainly in sympathy to the sell-off of crude oil. Similarly, when the price of crude oil rises sharply and/or the value of the US Dollar drops, gold also responds by rising.
Buuuuuy Equities!
This rally in stock futures today has one explanation: OIL! Since the plunge in equities last week was driven by the high price of crude oil, this rally can only be explained by today's plunge in the price of oil. If you have read John Mauldin's newsletter to which I posted a link over the weekend, you would also know what the forecast is for the price of crude oil, and especially that impact of all that oil sitting in tankers off the Iranian coast. Needless to say, the strength and duration of this rally will depend largely on the strength and duration of the sell-off in oil. But for now, BUY equities!Seeeeeell Crude!
This sell-off is very likely due to profit-taking rather than a change in the outlook of the fundamentals. In fact, the fundamentals data, even over the weekend (attacks on Nigeria oil production, for example), is very supportive of high crude oil prices. It may be short-lived, lasting until crude oil looks cheap and buying steps into the markets again. But for now... SELL!I've a hunch this could impact corn and soybean prices when the open for the day session today. This could make the soybean trading session particularly interesting today, given the breakdown in talks between the farmers and government of Argentina over the weekend.
Although the price of wheat often moves somewhat in sympathy with corn and soybeans, the deepening drought in Australia should start to put a more solid floor under the price of wheat. I don't expect as much impact today on the price of wheat from this crude oil sell-off.
Sunday, May 25, 2008
If Speculators Cause Prices to Rise, Then Why Are Prices Higher for Non-Exchange Commodities?
Answer: Because Speculators Don't Cause Prices to Rise
Erroneous assumptions cause erroneous conclusions.
Whither the Price of Oil? by John Mauldin
Great isn't it?
Mauldin's conclusion, in the end, is that "coincidence is not causality".




