John Mauldin, quoting Nietze:
"To trace something unknown back to something known is
alleviating, soothing, gratifying, and gives moreover a feeling of
power. Danger, disquiet, anxiety attend the unknown – the first
instinct is to eliminate these distressing states. First principle: any
explanation is better than none…. The cause-creating drive is thus
conditioned and excited by the feeling of fear…." –Friedrich Nietzsche
"Any explanation is better than none." And the simpler, it seems
in the investment game, the better. "The markets went up because oil
went down," we are told. Then the next day the opposite relationship
occurs. Then there is another reason for the movement of the markets.
But we all intuitively know that things are far more complicated than
that. As Nietzsche notes, dealing with the unknown can be disturbing, so
we look for the simple explanation.
Sunday, May 5, 2013
Psychology... or Psychosis?
"Ah," we tell ourselves, "I know why
that happened." With an explanation firmly in hand, we now feel we know
something. And the behavioral psychologists note that this state actually
releases chemicals in our brain that make us feel good. We literally become
addicted to the simple explanation. The fact that what we "know" (the
explanation for the unknowable) is irrelevant or even wrong is not important to
the chemical release. And so we look for reasons.
That is why some people get so angry when you
challenge their beliefs. You are literally taking away the source of their good
feeling, like drugs from a junkie or a boyfriend from a teenage girl.