From Confounded Interest blog:
One of the most important measures for housing is employment. And while payrolls are SLOWLY improving,
but food stamps are growing at a much faster rate.
This is from Bloomberg Briefs:
“An ongoing concern is that growth in jobs continues to be
dwarfed by the surge in food stamps. During the first 10 months of 2012
there were 1.01 million new additions to the USDA’s Supplemental
Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), a 2.2 percent increase. During the
same period, the number of nonfarm payroll jobs increased by 1.5
million, a 1.1 percent gain.
The results from the end of the recession in June 2009 are
even more staggering. The number of food stamp recipients has rocketed
30 percent since mid-2009, yet the number of nonfarm payroll jobs has
inched up a mere 2 percent over that same period. Considering the
composition of those jobs – in low wage industries – the household
sector is clearly suffering.”
The growth in food stamps correlates with the longer-term decline in wages and salaries (as a percentage of GDP).
It is hard to have a traditional owner-occupied housing recovery under these conditions.
Particularly with GDP growth at -0.5% in Q4 2012 and forecast to be +1.5% in Q1 2013.
In addition to the fiscal cliff and the debt cliff, we also have the “Welfare Cliff.”
Welcome to the Europization of the USA!