by Brandon Smith at Alt-Market.com
The markets, as most people reading this should now well know, no
longer reflect in any way the true economic health of our country. If
one was to measure the financial “recovery” of this nation by the
strength of global stocks alone, he would probably come to the
conclusion that the collapse of 2008 was a mere hiccup in the overall
success of the worldwide economic system. However, electronically
traded equities with little more to back their value than scraps of
receipt paper and numbers on a screen have no bearing on what is going
to happen to you, and to me, over the course of the coming year. The
stock market is a sideshow, a popcorn movie, a façade. The real drama
is going on behind the scenes and revealed in fundamentals that
mainstream analysts no longer discuss…
The only advantage of a
long drawn disintegration of the overall system is that as the years
pass, it becomes possible to discover a pattern through which we can
gauge where we really stand today and will stand tomorrow, giving us a
chance (a narrow chance) to limit the eventual damage. Unfortunately,
the pattern now in motion suggests that the next year will be exactly
what we have been predicting over the past several months: Dismal.
The
MSM refuses to discuss it at great length, but all signs show an epic
global slowdown in demand and production, especially in the final
quarter of 2012. This slowdown cannot be denied, nor can it be shrugged
off as inconsequential. This development is exactly as I predicted in
January of this year using the Baltic Dry Index as a guide. During that
first quarter, the BDI fell to record lows, indicating an extreme
decline in shipping demand around the world, which, in turn, indicated a
fall in demand for raw goods, which, in turn, indicated a fall in
demand for consumer goods. Mainstream pundits sought to distract the
public from this fact by claiming that the BDI was collapsing due to an
“oversupply of ships”, not rescinding demand. This disinformation was
proven incorrect in the beginning of the third quarter of this year,
when export nations from China, to Japan, to Germany all began reporting
abysmal manufacturing numbers and steep faltering in overseas
purchases.
Of course, we all know what happened next: The
markets began to tank when they caught the scent of a slowdown, losing a
thousand points within the span of a week. Not so unpredictably (since
I also predicted it at the beginning of the year) the Federal Reserve
leapt into action with its announcement of QE3 (QE Infinity).
QE3
has done little to change the problem of falling global demand, but it
has certainly defibrillated stocks. In fact, I think it is safe to say
that a majority of QE fiat funds are flowing (directly or indirectly)
into the DOW, and not much else. International trade and consumption is
starting to feel the pain, and respective countries are no longer able
to hide it. Keep in mind that this slowdown is occurring right at the
height of the Christmas season, when consumption is usually supposed to
reignite.
Despite the sugar coated claims of insane Keynesians
who only a few years ago were predicting a “resurgence” of American
industry and exports due to the Federal Reserve’s ongoing devaluation of
the dollar, production in the U.S. has remained pathetically weak, and
continues to decline:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/12/business/economy/decline-in-exports-hurts-us-trade-deficit.html
This
is of course a direct result of slowing global demand, reducing
potential markets all over the world, which is something deflation fear
mongers apparently didn’t see coming. The reality is that demand is
faltering EVERYWHERE, not just in the U.S., and this begs a particular
question: In an interdependent economic system driven primarily by
consumption, who is going to fill the void when all nations are dry of
spending cash? That is to say, who is going to take up the slack, when
obviously no one has the wealth to do so? Without a cultural cash
engine, the globalized framework is destined to fail.
China’s
export growth fell far more than expected in November, something which
many Chinese economists are attributing to a complete lack of revival in
American markets:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/10/us-china-economy-idUSBRE8B80FL20121210
Manufacturing
in the UK went into steep decline almost simultaneously, showing that
sinking demand is striking both the Pacific and the Atlantic:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-07/u-k-manufacturing-drops-more-than-forecast-on-food-alcohol-1-.html
Germany,
the largest economy in the EU and the only country still holding the
absurd political entity together, has been shocked to discover that its
own Bundesbank is forecasting a contraction in growth to near zero in
2013:
http://www.actionforex.com/analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/germany%27s-bundesbank-revise-lower-2013-outlook-20121207180090/
Japan’s
economy suffered an annualized decline in GDP in November greater than
that which occurred during the Fukushima disaster:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-11/japan-s-economy-shrinks-at-fastest-pace-since-earthquake.html
This
contraction has recently caused Japan to install a new revamped
government during elections this month, which unfortunately will be
instituting almost identical policies to the last regime.
Finally,
Brazil, a developing export nation with very important significance as a
litmus test for world consumption, posted near zero growth in the third
quarter of 2012, far below expectations but in line with the bigger
picture. The global financial machine is grinding to a halt right under
our very noses…
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/30/us-brazil-economy-gdp-idUSBRE8AT0KM20121130
At
the end of 2012, it is undeniable; the system is running out of steam,
and not even constant fiat injections by central banks are reversing our
current course.
In order to understand what is happening, I
want you to imagine a quickly diminishing cycle. Imagine that in 2008,
America was on the edge of a whirlpool, or a spinning vortex, and was
suddenly caught in the outermost current. Today, we have circled the
epicenter several times, each rotation becoming smaller and more
volatile than the last. Eventually, the whirlpool will reach an end,
and our economy will be sucked into the destructive funnel. One can see
clear evidence of this decline in the Baltic Dry Index:
Notice
how each year since 2008 there is a spike in shipping rates indicating a
rise in demand for materials at the onset of the Christmas season,
which is the natural progression of things. Yet, also notice that this
spike in demand grows smaller with each passing year. In 2012, the
increase has been almost nonexistent, meaning that we are likely very
close to going down the drain.
Some pundits may argue that
November’s Black Friday sales were tremendous, and this signals a
recovery in spending and consumption. I would point out that such
numbers are deceiving. High sales during the most discounted day of the
Christmas buying season is not necessarily a good thing. What it
really reveals is that a majority of shoppers were looking for the
lowest prices possible because of a lack of personal savings. It is a
sign of desperation, not revitalization. Full season numbers have not
yet been released, but when they are, I believe we will see a fantastic
spike in sales on Black Friday followed by a complete flatline for the
rest of the year. Obviously high consumption has not been sustained,
otherwise, worldwide manufacturing and shipping would be in much better
shape.
The issue here is one of priorities. With multiplying
distractions going on around the globe, including the fear of recent
mass murders at home, will the public be able to keep track of the
deadly financial tidal waves just off the coast, or will they even care
when distracted by so many sharks in the water? The next two months
will be very revealing. The so-called “fiscal cliff” is on the way, and
the question of whether or not the U.S. government should kick the can
down the road or take the sour medicine it needs and move on has arisen
once again. This debate is and always has been an illusion. Whether we
continue to increase government spending, taxation, and inflation, or
we cut all spending and shut down the fiat presses, there is still going
to be a collapse.
However, the “fiscal cliff” could be very dangerous in an entirely different respect…
The
coming collapse will not be due to the indecision or partisan bickering
of our politicians. They are in much closer agreement than the MSM
would like to admit. Instead, the monolithic Catch-22 of our age will
be the direct result of the actions of the private Federal Reserve and
the peripheral international banking cartel; the engineers who gave
birth to the toxic derivatives implosion in the first place. What I
fear most is that the results of the fiscal cliff negotiation along with
other triggers around the planet (Syria, Iran, the EU breakdown, etc.)
will be used to veil the true weaknesses of our already imploding
system, and eventually be exploited as scapegoat events for a disaster
that has been in the making for decades, not just a few years. The
omens are not good for 2013, and we can only circle the drain for so
long…