Not a pretty picture, from Zero Hedge:
We have discussed the exuberance and dysphoria that is exhibited by
economists in the context of extrapolating trends many times and nowhere
is that more clearly pictured than in Citigroup's Economic Surprise
Index which tracks the rise and fall of both misses and beats as well as
better or worse data. For the first time in over six months,
macro data for the G-10 has turned negative (with Europe having been
there for a while and the US getting very close) indicating significant
weakness. When this data turned from positive to negative in
July 2010 it pre-empted the 'rescue' of the global economy via QE2 and
each time it has dropped below its 200DMA (which it also just did) we
have seen notable deterioration in equity prices soon after. What is
more worrisome perhaps is the rate of deterioration over the last two
months or so. Four of the last five times we dropped this
rapidly we saw significant drops in stock prices soon after (Dec 2008,
August 2010, and June 2011). Europe and the US are now trending
lower in macro data 'surprises' as decoupling disappears but the US
remains a little less bad for those looking for silver-linings - for
now.
G-10 macro data has turned negative (upper pane) dropped below its
200DMA and is at its lowest in over six months. The pace of
deterioration has been rapid (lower pane) and 4 of the previous 5 times
this pace of drop has occurred, equity prices have dropped considerably
soon after...
US and Europe are now back in sync as decoupling becomes a dim and
distant memory though on the bright side we are not missing as badly as
Europe...
and in case you were wondering how well this syncs with stock
performance, her is the US-only Citi ECO surprise index relative to 3
month changes in the S&P 500...
Charts: Bloomberg