As predicted, the US economy is now in free fall (even with QE2 still having two more months to go), validated by today's Services ISM (recall that the US economy is based on "services", not a manufacturing) which plunged from 57.5 to 52.8, taking out consensus of 57.5, and "growing" at the lowest rate since August 2010. As a reminder a number south of 50 means "contraction." From the report: "The NMI registered 52.8 percent in April, 4.5 percentage points lower than the 57.3 percent registered in March, and indicating continued growth at a slower rate in the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased 6 percentage points to 53.7 percent, reflecting growth for the 21st consecutive month, but at a slower rate than in March. The New Orders Index decreased substantially by 11.4 percentage points to 52.7 percent. The Employment Index decreased 1.8 percentage points to 51.9 percent, indicating growth in employment for the eighth consecutive month, but at a slower rate. The Prices Index decreased 2 percentage points to 70.1 percent, indicating that prices increased at a slightly slower rate in April when compared to March. According to the NMI, 17 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in April. Respondents' comments are mixed about overall business conditions; however, they are mostly positive. Respondents' comments also indicate concern over rising fuel costs, commodity costs and the lingering uncertainty about the economy." Virtually every index declined with New Orders plummeting from 64.1 to 52.7 - the biggest drop in history, excepts for Supplier Deliveries (this will certainly drop next month), and Imports.
A quick look at the commodity situation:
Commodities Up in PriceAnd respondents:
Air Freight; Aircraft Fuel; Airfares (5); Beef; Can Liners; Carbon Pipe; Copper (3); Copper Products (5); Corrugated; Cotton (6); Cotton Products (8); #1 Diesel Fuel (7); #2 Diesel Fuel (10); Freight Charges; Fuel (16); Fuel Surcharges (4); Gasoline (7); Ink Jet Toner Cartridges; Latex Gloves (4); Lube Products; Oil Products; Packaging Materials (2); Paper (6); Petroleum; Petroleum Products (4); Plastics; Plastic Products (2); Plastic Sheet; Polyester Garments (2); Polyethylene Bags (5); Polyethylene Film; Resins; Steel (5); Steel Pipe and Fittings; Steel Products (5); Textiles; Tomatoes; and Transportation Costs.
Commodities Down in Price
No commodities are reported down in price.
Commodities in Short Supply
Cotton (4); Cotton Products; Laptop Computers; and Servers.
- "Business conditions [remain] unchanged. No supply impact from the Japan earthquake/tsunami, but continue to track with the supply base." (Management of Companies & Support Services)
- "Revenues are picking up slowly, but the growth is positive as compared to last month and the same month last year." (Real Estate, Rental & Leasing)
- "Looking forward with reserved caution. Cost of goods by this fall are a big worry." (Accommodation & Food Services)
- "Continuing economic uncertainty will curtail or delay project spending for the immediate future." (Educational Services)
- "Fuel prices continue to be challenging and in addition to shipping, are influencing the cost of materials." (Public Administration)
- "We are seeing price increases in many areas, and the lead times are stretching out. Our business activities are improving at a moderate rate." (Wholesale Trade)
