Chicago Fed Index Drops to Lowest Levels Since August 2010

"Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to –0.45 in April from +0.32 in March. April marked the lowest reading of the index since August 2010. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index deteriorated from March, but two of those three categories made positive contributions to the index in April."
"A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negativevalues indicate below-average growth; and positive values indicate above-average growth." And: "When the CFNAI-MA3 value moves below –0.70 following a period of economic expansion, there is an increasing likelihood that a recession has begun."