Grain Stocks Paper Thin

from various tweets regarding the USDA's grain report this morning:

US soybean stocks at 140 mln bu equates to a 15.2-day supply - the tightest of the past 40 years!

China buys 40k tons US soyoil 

USDA's tight soybean stocks est was only achieved by "assuming" that prices would ration beans available for domestic crush 

Global corn stocks fall to just a 55.4-day supply; 2nd tightest of past 35 years; 2nd only to 54.9-day supply 4 yrs ago

Today's USDA #s are bullish long-term, altho we could see profit taking if buying int wanes today

Today's USDA data means that corn needs 93 mln and soybeans need 79 mln acres w little margin for bad weather

USDA tightens stocks leaving no room for error in next season's plantings and will require rationing of ethanol demand

from Futures Knowledge:


Cotton prices ended the day limit bid and are trading near limit gains this morning.  The USDA January supply/demand report was supportive for cotton but was quite bullish for grains and soybeans which is causing cotton to rally.  For the US, USDA raised US production of cotton by 50,000 bales to 18.32 million bales. Raised Use by 100,000 bales to 3.6 million and left exports at 15.75 million bales. And left ending stocks at 1.90 million bales.  For the world, USDA lowered production by 70,000 bales to 115.46 million bales, raised World Use by 280,000 bales to 116.58 and reduced World ending stocks by 550,000  bales which puts them at 42.84 million bales.  Whenever world ending stocks are reduced it is bullish on its face. The USDA left production unchanged in Australia, India, and China though they are likely to lower those estimates later. They raised Brazil’s production by 100,000 bales to 8.2 million. USDA raised India’s cotton consumption by 500,000 bales to 21.5 million. USDA lowered soybean ending stocks by 25 million bushels to 140 million. USDA lowered wheat ending stocks by 40 million bushels to 818 million.  USDA lowered corn ending stocks 87 million bushels to 745 million.  Today, the US Dollar Index is down 38 points at 80.75. Crude oil is up 55 cents at $91.65. March soybeans were up 14 cents overnight at $13.71. March corn was up 5 1/2 cents overnight at $6.12 ½. July wheat was up 11 ½ cents overnight at $8.19 ¾. China’s cotton futures and forwards were higher overnight.