Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Retail Sales Decline Modestly, More Than Forecast

The weakness shows again! Two months in a row! Ouch!

Even this figure is probably inflated for three reasons:

  1. Sales tax revenues are still declining. If retail sales were improving, sales tax revenues should be rising. They're not!
  2. The survey is skewed toward businesses that have survived. What about all those businesses that didn't? The sales of other companies have parasitized those that have gone belly up. If those businesses had been counted, sales figures would have been considerably lower.
  3. States have increased their sales tax. If revenues are falling even in the face off higher rates, then retail sales are really improving, are they?

from WSJ:

U.S. retail sales tumbled a second straight time in June, falling more than expected in a sign consumer spending is slowing and draining steam from an economy saddled with high joblessness.
Sales decreased 0.5%, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast a 0.3% decline.