from WSJ:
LONDON -- Global trade flows slipped in August after rising for the two previous months, an indication that the economic recovery is more fragile and anemic than previous data have hinted.
The Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis said trade volumes fell 2% from July, according to an algorithm based on customs data from 23 developed countries and 60 emerging markets, accounting for 95% of global trade.
The report is closely watched because it comes out before those compiled by the World Trade Organization and other institutions.
Global trade flows plummeted in the final months of last year as demand slowed and banks financed fewer cross-border transactions. Volumes were down 13% in August compared with the previous year.
The trade crisis has hit exporting powerhouses such as Japan and Germany particularly hard, sparked minor waves of protectionism almost everywhere, and inspired world leaders to make more funds available for trade finance.
The International Monetary Fund says world trade will fall 11.9% overall in 2009, the biggest drop since the Great Depression. The IMF sees a modest 2.5% increase in 2010.
Flows steadied during the second quarter of 2009, inspiring hopes of a recovery. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Friday that exports from the Group of Seven leading industrial nations rose 0.8% from the first quarter, although imports continued to fall, by 2.5%.
The Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, also known by its Dutch acronym CPB, calculated that trade was up 3.7% in July over June, prompting many observers to conclude that a true recovery was under way.
Many analysts, however, say the trend has bottomed out but that it is too early to predict where it will end in the next few months.
