Monday, May 18, 2009

Barrons: The Treasury Bubble Has Burst

from Barrons:

THE BUBBLE HAS BURST.

We're talking about U.S. Treasury securities, not housing. At the end of 2008, risk-averse investors poured into Treasuries, driving down yields to the lowest levels in decades. The 30-year Treasury bond fetched less than 3%, and short-term T-bills carried yields of zero.

Since then, the economy has shown signs of bottoming, the credit markets are functioning more normally, and the stock market has roared back from its March lows. Treasuries now are in a bear market, while bullish enthusiasm has taken hold in other parts of the credit market, including corporate bonds, municipals and mortgage securities, ...

I'm not sure I would agree that the bubble has burst. However, interest rates have definitely begun to rise. I think the bursting of this bubble still has a long way to go. There is still a great deal of gas to be released from this bubble. The consequences will be enormous!