Corn Crumbles

from Bruce Knorr:
Bulls in the corn trade cursed outside markets over the fall and winter, when each day seemed to bring reminders that supply and demand were mere bit players in a larger drama. But last week bulls could have used some outside influence. While other markets were looking stronger, corn suffered. Where are your friends when you need them?
Corn appeared to be falling under the pressure of its typical seasonal trend. While rain from a slow moving weather system will slow fieldwork early the week, overall the pattern appeared to be improving, leaving the path of least resistance lower.
I don’t expect a free-fall at this point. Few acres are actually in the ground, soybean prices are not providing any incentives to plant corn, and weather models continue to flip flop on when and how rains will return. While fields could dry out later this week, especially in the west, forecasts over the weekend suggested potential for regular storms to move across the Corn Belt.
When all is said and done, the crop likely will be planted more or less on time. Areas north and south of the winter storm track are dry, but much of the region is in good shape. As a result, producers likely will need patience before rallies emerge over the summer. While the long-term forecast out last week looks mostly favorable, areas in the western Corn Belt look like they’ve face enough heat to keep alive hopes for some type of rally. Fundamentals also look stronger into 2010 for corn that must be stored.