Monday, February 2, 2009

Trading Perspective From John Mauldin

An excerpt from John Mauldin's most recent newsletter:

Seriously, buy and hold in a secular bear market like we are in is a losing strategy. On an inflation-adjusted basis, you are down if your holding period has been 30 years! Most of us would think that 30 years is the long run! On a nominal basis, you are about where you were ten years ago, if you are in a broad index.

Even if you are a value investor, you have gotten creamed in this market. (Some great value investors are down 60%. Their experience of buying and holding solid companies, which had worked so well for so long, needs to be married with some risk discipline.) You need a sell discipline. Barry's system, or others like it, can at least get you thinking about selling rather than riding a stock all the way to the bottom and hoping it comes back. Hope is not a viable investment strategy...

The best traders and managers have risk controls and sell disciplines and they stick to them. Period. They don't fall in love with a stock or a commodity position.

Here is John's full newsletter.

In his latest newsletter, John mentions and discusses software that combines both fundamental and technical analysis in a single software platform. This is rare in his newsletter. I am not familiar with the sytem, so I neither endorse nor discourage it. However, when John mentions "Barry's system" in the above quote, this trading software/system is what he is referring to. I mention this only as an explanation of the above quote, not as an endorsement. In his complete newsletter, Mauldin has a more complete explanation of how the system works, a special introductory rate for his subscribers, and a link to take advantage of the offer.