This was a great trade that I missed today. I should have shorted soybeans, which broke through long-term support at $11.65 (established in January and tested again in May) on the Nov '08 contract, and reached their limit down price. I didn't check last night, but the weekly USDA crop report must have shown good fall growing conditions for beans. Also likely is the influence of the bearish crude oil outlook.Despite the bearish trend in grains for the moment, I found this insightful by Vic Lespinasse, who suggests somewhat bullish fundamentals due to the cool, wet spring this year and resulting delayed crop development ever since. Since the corn and soybean plants are well behind normal in their crop development, just one significant freeze in the grain-growing regions of the United States could change the bearish forecast if crops experience any significant damage in the next few weeks before they can be harvested. Here is Vic's commentary:
The weekly crop ratings yesterday afternoon showed corn and beans both unchanged from the previous week in the good to excellent catagories, 61% and 57%, respectively. Development remains well behind normal with only 19% of the corn crop mature vs 44% average and just 21% of the beans dropping leaves, a sign of maturity, vs 41% average. Winter wheat planting is off to a slow start with 11% done against 16% average.Vic is a long-time grains trader who is one of the most experienced in the business. He offers trading services for investors who wish to trade the grain markets, but who may not have the time or experience to do it themselves. Vic's website and complete commentary is here:
Grain Analyst
I really like the recent redesign of his website, too!
