Stocks today have slid back into bear market territory, with the Dow now down 20% from its highs last year. The Dow is now down more than 300 points today! With only positive news today in the economic data front, including a further slide in the price of crude oil and other commodities, this is a significant development. Many are viewing the slide in crude oil to be a bearish indicator because crude oil would only slide if the economy were in dire straights.
The daily chart above shows a Bollinger Band breakout of the lower band, after nearly two months of trading dead flat. If the index closes below the band today, and tomorrow continues to move even lower than today's low, a new downtrend is confirmed. However, I also expect to see an attempt to rally back to approximately the 8-period Exponential Moving Average before another sell-off. Some shorts will get shaken out of the market when this happens. I will probably use it as an opportunity to improve my position to improve my price before the selling.
If, on the other hand, the jobs report is better than expected, we may expect a rally that could last for days. Typically, if a Bollinger Band breakout occurs, and prices then rebound back within the bands, prices will often rally back toward the opposite Bollinger Band, often touching the opposing band. This would represent about a 500-point rally for the Dow, although it would not likely occur on a single day. Personally, I don't see this as a high probability scenario.
I also wonder if some of today's sell-off is a way for many traders to lighten up their positions for a possible bad number from tomorrow's payroll report. Obviously, the risk is to the downside tomorrow. Everyone is expecting a slide in unemployment of approximately 75,000. If the number is more than 75,000, perhaps even more than 100,000, then the market will be hit with a shock and could sell off even more. Many traders, who are otherwise bullish and have seen a possible bottom, might possibly be removing their bullish positions in anticipation of the possibility of a bearish jobs report tomorrow. We'll see when the monthly jobs report is released tomorrow morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It will undoubtedly be an exciting day.
