The stock market futures dropped this morning following the release of GDP data by the U.S. government. It indicated that GDP for Q4 '07 was negative instead of the previously-reported positive data. This is significant, because the most common definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. This is devastating news to those who have been claiming throughout 2008 that the U.S. was not in recession because we hadn't seen any quarters of negative GDP. These optimistic souls have had the rug pulled out from under them today.
GDP data for Q2 '08 also disappointed. This is particularly disappointing when we take into account that the stimulus checks were sent out in Q2. Without those, GDP would very likely have been negative. It was superficially positive, however. I say "superficially" because when inflation is taken into account, it is also negative. The government's calculation method doesn't take inflation into account.
Jobless claims are also very troubling today.
GDP data for Q2 '08 also disappointed. This is particularly disappointing when we take into account that the stimulus checks were sent out in Q2. Without those, GDP would very likely have been negative. It was superficially positive, however. I say "superficially" because when inflation is taken into account, it is also negative. The government's calculation method doesn't take inflation into account.
Jobless claims are also very troubling today.
I would like to comment more, but it's time to trade, not talk.
