The strong sentiment underpinning the US Dollar today is driving grain longs to liquidate their positions. Farmers who still have old crop in storage may be joining in, hoping to sell their product before prices go any lower, thus driving prices even lower. Why did these groups wait so long? The fleet-of-foot money wasn't long the past few days. We were trading in both directions, picking up a few extra dollars by taking advantage of the change in sentiment and the resulting chaos. If the following three requirements exist tomorrow, I will probably change my medium-term (a few days to a few weeks) outlook for the future.
- Prices close below the Exponential Moving Average today (they appear poised to), and prices move below today's low price tomorrow.
- The US Dollar continues to strengthen tomorrow. I will likely buy the USD if all conditions are met on the chart of the US Dollar Index.
- The Klinger Volume indicator continues to show the selling activity that first manifested itself April 16th.
