Here is another posting from the mid-day on the CME website. Note the acknowledgment of the influence of the sinking US Dollar on grain prices! Anyone who suggests that the debasement of the American currency has no effect on commodity prices must be either deluded, ignorant, or in denial!
May soybeans opened 3 1/2 cents higher on the session at 15.12 and established an early range of 14.59 1/4 to 15.13 1/4. Another sharp drop in the US dollar and strength in other commodity markets had traders calling for the market to open up 10-15 cents higher but speculative long liquidation selling in soybeans and follow-through technical selling from the sweeping reversal in oil helped drive the market sharply lower into the mid-session. Weekly export sales for soybeans came in at just 204,600 tonnes which was about half of what was expected. Cumulative sales, however, have reached 94.5% of the USDA forecast for the 2007/2008 marketing year as compared with 86.6% as the 5-year average for this time of the year. Good weather in South America, a revision higher in Brazil production from the Brazil government and hefty deliveries for soybeans and oil added to the negative tone and helped push the market to the lows into the mid-session. Meal sales came in at 75,900 tonnes and oil sales were 6,800 tonnes. Cumulative soybean oil sales have reached 82.7% of the USDA forecast for the 2007/2008 marketing year as compared with 48.8% as the 5-year average for this time of the year. Monthly soybean oil used to produce bio-diesel in January was just 202.9 million pounds. This was down from 219.9 million in December but still up 21% from last year. Usage was down for the 5th month in a row. Oil deliveries this morning were 1,835 contracts with soybeans at 1,469.It is certainly noteworthy that in this CME mid-day commentary, the long-term bullishness for soybean prices is also mentioned. Imagine that before the U.S. soybean crop is even planted, 94.5% of it is already sold! That is very bullish, long-term!
