Thursday, February 14, 2008

Gold Buyers Step In on Dips


Note in this (daily) chart that buying volume has picked up again over the last two trading sessions. The blue circle in the sub-graph shows that gold is being bought on dips, but at progressively higher price levels. It is also being sold at lower levels; the last dip only lasted a day and a half. This pattern will force a break-out -- either up or down -- fairly soon.

I have also marked two tightening trend lines; one is the long-term gold trend, and the second is a weakening price trend. This bullish trend is marked as a pair of light blue lines, and the more recent bearish sentiment is marked with a burgundy trend line. Due to the long-term bull trend in gold, its safe-haven status, and the dogged devotion to the precious metals among gold bugs, I personally suspect that the gold trend will continue, and that buying will push gold prices to new highs. It is hard to imagine a scenario in which gold prices would fall, unless economic activity falters significantly. From a statistical standpoint, this pattern has a high probability of an eventual break-out to the upside. I could always be surprised, however.