Saturday, January 5, 2008

U.S. Jobs -- was it even worse than reported?

I am an eager weekly subscriber to John Mauldin's free newsletter. He has over 1,000,000 weekly subscribers! It is always insightful, often educational, and profoundly helpful in my trading. This week's (released this morning) was also startling. I strongly recommend reading it, especially to stock and stock index traders.

Mauldin explains in detail how the U.S. government arrives at its figures for both the NFP jobs report and for the household survey. He explains why the former is somewhat flawed because it largely ignores small and new businesses, the primary engines for job growth.

What is so startling is that during the month of December, the household survey registered a monumental decline in employment of 436,000 jobs! In one month! I hope I have incited enough interest in my blog readers that you will read the entire article. Find it at this link:

Forecast 2008: Recession and Recovery