Saturday, December 1, 2007

Daily Soybeans losing momentum, volatility

I am posting here a daily chart for soybeans. It is showing all the signs of an imminent reversal. Note in the last candle, prices have crossed convincingly through the EMA. Prices tried, but failed, yesterday. I have programmed my EMA so that it changes from blue to red when this occurs. (By the way, I use Tradestation, both for my charts and as my futures broker).

At the same time, notice in the 2nd panel that the Klinger Volume indicator has already turned down days before, and has now also crossed below its yellow trigger line, which is also moving lower.

On the same candle, BOTH the Hull Moving Average (magenta and blue in the 2nd panel), and the Gaussian filter (not pictured in this graphic, but typically shown as green and red in the 3rd panel of my other chart examples), also turned DOWN on the same candle. Thus, all 3 moving averages turned down at the same time. I should also note that the slow stochastic and MACD have also turned down, as has Open Interest.

Will soybeans turn down in price? Only time will tell, but this is a good hint of lower prices to come, or at the very least, fading upside energy and momentum. If I had to guess, I would bet that prices will rise again until the longer Bollinger Moving Average in the top panel draws closer to prices. A sideways movement may be more likely until more long-term traders realize that the big soybean move of the past year is finally coming to an end. I'll be ready, however, for a new move up and amplification of the bullish trend, as has happened in the past. Be ready for anything the market gives you.

One last thing: Since hedge fund traders and hedgers (not the same thing) often use them, I have added the 50-day (light blue) and 200-day (magenta) Simple Moving Averages to my daily chart. Since so many people consider them to be important, I wanted to be able to see them. They represent important potential support.