Friday, December 21, 2007

Flurry of activity and bullish prices to close week


The bulls have broken through once again (had we any doubt?) to close the week at what appears to be a new closing high, and perhaps a new record high. The soybean bull continues unabated! (See Chick Goslin's Law #2 from my earlier post today.)

I exited at the first red candle after the run-up in prices. This pattern, when confirmed by lower prices, is very close to a bearish engulfing pattern. A true engulfing pattern would have shown the open price above the close for the previous candle. However, in highly liquid markets like futures, the closing price for one candle is frequently the opening price for the next one. Many candlestick pattern purists trade primarily stocks, where gaps and price jumps are common, if not the rule. In futures and currencies, where liquidity is better and price depth is more ample, gapping prices are quite rare, although certainly not unheard of. Thus, a purist interpretation of candlestick patterns may not be appropriate for futures. We adapt.

Needless to say, I missed out on additional profits, but at the close of the session and week, I wasn't going to re-enter the markets so close to the close. I wish I had, but no one trades perfectly. I certainly could have. My rule is not to place a new trade after 2:05 pm EST. The green candle following my exit occurred at 2:02 pm EST.