Stocks Stumble on Bad Economic News

Between the weak manufacturing data and the potential for political chaos in Washington, stocks are down 535 points as I type this!

Stocks RISE On Perfect Track Record of Recession

If this doesn't spell B-U-B-B-L-E, what does? The last time it happened, the bubble popped then, too!

David Robsenberg at Bloomberg said this today:

"We now have had three months of a 3-mo/10-yr yield curve inversion. The track record this has had in predicting recessions: 100%."

Is An Economic Crisis Imminent?

The answer I would reply for the above question is that I don't know. I hope not! The stock market of the past few days suggests not! But based upon this article by Michael Snyder, perhaps so. He makes a good case on his website .here
Of the items Mr. Synder elucidated, here are a few that startled me:
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the probability that a recession will happen within the next 12 months is now the highest that it has been since the last financial crisis. 
Major U.S. retailers continue to shut down more stores, and we have continued to stay on a pace that would break the all-time record for sThe total number of bankruptcy filings in the United States has been steadily shooting uptore closings in a single year.

For the complete list, I recommend Mr. Synder's entire article. 

Treasury Yield Inversion Signals Recession

is this why the Dow is down 600+ points this morning? That's about 100 points more than the rise is stocks at their peak yesterday. Look out, because trouble is coming!
This treasury yield curve inversion is one of the most accurate recession signals in history! It hasn't been wrong once in the past half century! This is a huge red flag!

Update: Corn Goes Limit Down on Crop Report Results

I have learned that the price of corn plunged this morning when the US Department of Agriculture released the latest crop planting report, indicating that the corn crop is significantly higher this year than originally forecast. The price of corn futures today is limit down, dropping 25 cents today! 

Corn Price Decimated

The price of corn today was hit hard due to China canceling all purchases for this season. This is devastating for farmers, who have been struggling to make a profit.
This quote from CNBC today:
"U.S. farmers lost their fourth largest export market this week after China officially cancelled all purchases of U.S. agricultural products, a retaliatory move following President Donald Trump’s pledge to slap 10% tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese imports."

Crude Gets Clobbered

Could a collapse in demand for crude oil be imminent? If the global economy weakens, then demand for crude oil would weaken. Perhaps this is what we're seeing here now, since a sharp increase in crude oil supply surprised the markets today, sending crude oil down almost $3 per barrel!

30-Year Yield Drops Below Fed Funds Rate

As if a collapsing stock market wasn't enough of a sign of trouble ahead, today, the Fed Funds rate on the 30-year dropped. This is an ominous new sign of further trouble ahead.

A Bubble Defined!

If this headline doesn't describe a bubble, I don't know what does! This is the very definition and description of a bubble. It's just a question of time when it pops!

Food Shortages Are Here!

This sign was recently posted at WalMart. Food shortages have become a reality. Higher food prices aren't far away!

Market Canary In the Coal Mine Throws Up Red Flag

Another market canary in the coal mine has throw up a red flag today. That said, the Dow is once again trading at fresh record highs, just as is the S&P 500. This market looks more like a bubble with every day that passes. I suggest keeping tight stops!
Here is the headline today on Marketwatch:

"A stock-market index of small caps is at its weakest versus the S&P 500 since the financial crisis, suggesting the market has a liquidity problem."

Food Commodity Prices Continue Sharply Higher

This is the price of corn futures today. The price of corn and other food futures continue to rise sharply. Expect food inflation soon!

Something Doesn't Jive In This!

This doesn't make sense! If the economy is doing so well, why would central bankers need to artificially boost the markets and asset prices to bubble levels by more quantitative easing?

Happy Independence Day, July 4th!

Food Commodity Prices Leap Again!

As if we hadn't seen charts like this one enough already this year, corn futures are leaping higher again today! After a few days last week when investors took their profits and liquidated their contracts, today, prices are leaping higher once again, as even planted crops are being devastated! This is today's chart of higher prices!

This Sounds More and More Bubbly! Meet the Everything Bubble!

...And it sounds more and more like the "everything bubble"! Look at these headlines today:

 

Meanwhile, stocks are setting new record highs, even as jobs weaken. Job weakness, by the way, is known as a "lagging" economic indicator! It is one of the last things to drop when the economy approaches a recession. 

Farm Devastation Contitnues, But Commodity Prices Collapse

Despite that weather continues to devastate American farms, the price of corn futures today dropped by the most in several months. This headline was on Zero Hedge:

But corn futures did this today:

I'm still investigating the reasons why!

Farm Economy Getting Bludgeoned This Year

Zero Hedge this morning has this photo and article:

"And it's not just farmers that are bearing the brunt of the flooding, it's the entire agricultural economy. Those that provide supplies like seeds, fertilizer, equipment and services are also struggling. For example, BBG reports that "at Burrus Seed in Arenzville, Illinois, employees spend as much time trying to lift farmers’ spirits as they do selling to them."
Todd Burrus, owner, said:

“If we experienced a year like this, I don’t remember it. When the farm economy is tough, it’s going to be tough for all the suppliers.”

The Economic News Continues to Degrade

Stocks are up today! But the economic news isn't! I just read this quote by Michael Snyder:
"It is going to take a miracle for the U.S. economy to pull out of this tailspin, because the economic numbers are really starting to deteriorate very rapidly now.  On Tuesday we got some more new numbers, and they were just as bad as we thought they might be.  But even before today’s numbers all of the data were telling us the exact same thing.  The New York Fed’s Empire State manufacturing index just suffered the worst one month decline in U.S. history, Morgan Stanley’s Business Conditions Index just suffered the largest one month decline that we have ever seen, global trade numbers are the worst they have been since the last recession, and just last week I detailed the complete and utter “bloodbath” that we are witnessing in the U.S. trucking industry right now."
You can read his full article here.
And this is even more bad news:

Recession Predicted By Gary Shilling

This headline today by Marketwatch suggests that recession may be imminent. I don't generally take such predictions seriously, but Gary Shilling has a pretty accurate record of forecasting such events.