Farm Devastation Contitnues, But Commodity Prices Collapse

Despite that weather continues to devastate American farms, the price of corn futures today dropped by the most in several months. This headline was on Zero Hedge:

But corn futures did this today:

I'm still investigating the reasons why!

Farm Economy Getting Bludgeoned This Year

Zero Hedge this morning has this photo and article:

"And it's not just farmers that are bearing the brunt of the flooding, it's the entire agricultural economy. Those that provide supplies like seeds, fertilizer, equipment and services are also struggling. For example, BBG reports that "at Burrus Seed in Arenzville, Illinois, employees spend as much time trying to lift farmers’ spirits as they do selling to them."
Todd Burrus, owner, said:

“If we experienced a year like this, I don’t remember it. When the farm economy is tough, it’s going to be tough for all the suppliers.”

The Economic News Continues to Degrade

Stocks are up today! But the economic news isn't! I just read this quote by Michael Snyder:
"It is going to take a miracle for the U.S. economy to pull out of this tailspin, because the economic numbers are really starting to deteriorate very rapidly now.  On Tuesday we got some more new numbers, and they were just as bad as we thought they might be.  But even before today’s numbers all of the data were telling us the exact same thing.  The New York Fed’s Empire State manufacturing index just suffered the worst one month decline in U.S. history, Morgan Stanley’s Business Conditions Index just suffered the largest one month decline that we have ever seen, global trade numbers are the worst they have been since the last recession, and just last week I detailed the complete and utter “bloodbath” that we are witnessing in the U.S. trucking industry right now."
You can read his full article here.
And this is even more bad news:

Recession Predicted By Gary Shilling

This headline today by Marketwatch suggests that recession may be imminent. I don't generally take such predictions seriously, but Gary Shilling has a pretty accurate record of forecasting such events.

Latest Real Estate Data Hints At Popping Bubble

This headline this morning suggests that the latest real estate bubble is on the verge of popping:

The Case-Shiller is the leading real estate pricing index.

Are We Near Boom -- Or Bust?

This quote seems to make the point well by Deutsche Bank's Aleksandar Kocic:
"...the economy at the moment is in a superposition of two states - it is both booming and it is headed for a recession."

One Year's Difference in Crop Growth Hints Higher Food Prices

This photo shows a one-year difference taken of the same person in the same spot on the same date one year apart. The one on the right is this year. What will happen if fall or winter weather begins before the crop on the right can be harvested? Food prices would be sharply higher!

Where's the Logic In This Headline?

I saw this headline today on Marketwatch. Where's the logic in this?

As the Fed prepares to suppress interest rates by creating more money out of nothing, and by creating more and more debt, it boosts stocks, but only artificially. Eventually, the bubble will burst -- again!

When Will Food Supplies and Prices Be Impacted?

Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged, Market Sighs

The Fed's Open Market Committee today left rates unchanged and indicated that it has no plans to change interest rates through the end of this year. However, by dropping the word "patient" from its statement, it hinted that it is more open to cutting rates.

Many Farmers Have Given Up On Planting Crops This Year

Read the full article here. Here is a brief quote:
"The storms that have caused major flooding in Illinois have forced farmers to give up on their crops. Forecasts for even more rain also sent corn futures to a 5-year-high, bringing the food crisis ever closer to reality. Few farmers will even see a benefit from the higher prices because they can’t even get their corn planted in the ground."

Stocks Back Near Record Highs Following Trump Tweet

Food Prices Leap Again!

Compare this chart with the one I posted on June 13th. That green candle at the top right is the rise in price within the last 20 minutes when the market reopened this evening! Note also the steady rise over the intervening days. Get used to higher food costs. They're coming!

The price was 363 on May 13th, and hit 470 today. That's about a 30% increase in just over one month!

Is Recession Headed Our Way? Morgan Stanley Seems to Think So!

One wonders, when we see a headline like this one on MarketWatch today.

Here is a brief summary of their analysis:

"The business environment is deteriorating — fast.

"That is according to a gauge of business conditions tracked by Morgan Stanley, which said in a recent note that its proprietary Business Conditions Index, or MSBCI, fell 32 points last month, marking its sharpest collapse since the metric was formulated. The gauge touched its lowest point since the 2007-08 financial crisis."

Here is a similar headline on Zero Hedge:

Meat Prices Headed Higher Also!

Food Commodity Prices Leap Again!

The Bubble Grows! Stocks Leap on Bad Economic News

The federal jobs report this morning showed less than half the number of expected jobs were created last month than were expected. That's bad for business! That suggested that corporate America may be seeing a future recession coming down the road. But the stock market is up nearly 300 points! Why? Because, as indicated in the above headline, Wall St expects the Federal Reserve to initiate more quantitative easing, creating more digital money to artificially boost stocks even higher into bubble territory! The bubble grows!

Fed Is Pandering to Stock Market. That Spells B-U-B-B-L-E!

I thought this was an interesting insight this morning from Bill Blain at Morning Porridge.
"US employment is at a high, the labour market is tightening, there is minimal real inflation and the stock market is off to the races because the Fed says its ready to ease if trade tensions impact the stock market economy.
"In 35 years of markets, this is perhaps the stupidest moment I’ve ever seen.
"There is a danger Powell et al seem are confusing the Dow and S&P for the health of the economy, thereby making the Fed complicit in the ultimate market distortion that’s being going on since someone dreamt up QE. The World’s most important central bank is missing the point completely, and more or less promising to bail out stock markets if Trade Tension causes them to weaken."

One of the chief characteristics of a bubble is that everyone dismisses risk. Heeeeere we go again! 

Farm Production Weak

"The 12 month period that concluded at the end of April was the wettest 12 month period in U.S. history, and more storms just kept on coming throughout the month of May," said Michael Snyder today.
Bloomberg said yesterday, "There has never been a spring planting season like this one. Rivers topped their banks. Levees were breached. Fields filled with water and mud. And it kept raining." 

Despite this, it appears that corn and other agricultural prices may have topped out.

Manipulated Markets, Not Free Markets

Guess which one of these headlines has affected stock prices today. The Dow is currently up over 400 points. How can stocks be so bullish when today's economic data is so bearish? Central bankers, that's how! Today's markets are manipulated. They are no longer free markets!