Bloomberg: "Equities in Denial"

Bloomberg writer Richard Breslow this morning expressed a rather sanguine assessment of the current equity markets, despite price strength.

Fed Has Barely Begun to Reduce Its Balance Sheet

I was stunned when I saw this chart. After all that we've been told that the Federal Reserve has reduced its balance sheet and begun to normalize, this chart shows that it hasn't happened.

Plunging Corn

I'm looking forward to being able to take advantage of this drop in the price of corn.

The Smart Money Is Running for the Exits

One of the signs of a maturing bubble that is showing froth and may be about to burst is that the really big money of professional investors runs for the exits. They see trouble ahead, and they quietly exit the markets so as to preserve their capital when the market collapses.

Crude Oil Peaks -- for Now!

On May 24, the Russians and Saudis announced that they would soon increase oil production. Since then, the price of crude oil has reversed, and the price has declined significantly. And we have seen a more recent decline in the price of gasoline. 

Unemployment at 3.8%, But Adults Not In Labor Force Hits Record High

Once again, I find it interesting that the BLS announced that unemployment had reached an 18-year low of 3.8%. But at the same time, the BLS announced on the same day that the number of American adults not in the labor force hit a new all-time record high of 95.9 million! That's the highest in American history! Ouch!

Shiller PE at High Levels

Crude Oil Going Sky High

Crude oil price rocketed more than $2 per barrel today. And this evening, it was up another 55 cents just minutes ago. We must prepare for even higher gasoline prices. Ouch!

Something That Doesn't Add Up!

This morning, I saw two articles on the same website. One indicates that we have hit a new record number of Social Security recipients in the United States:

And this headline indicating that we have hit a new record number of American adults not in the workforce:

That figure was just 94 million in July of 2016.
And yet we're also being told that the unemployment rate has dropped to just 3.9%!

The numbers don't add up! But worse than that, they are unsustainable! We now have so many people receiving government assistance in the US that a disaster is inevitable!

Tumbling Treasuries As Stocks Climb Sharply Higher

A perceived "de-escalation" of tensions with Russia in Syria is sending stocks sharply higher, and US Treasuries sharply lower today. Wall St is happy today! The Dow was up 350 points as I wrote this.

Hints That Market May Be Reaching Top

I couldn't help noticing this morning that these two headlines hinted at a potential for the current asset markets to be reaching their zeniths. I also noticed another headline, which is not posted here, that real estate refinance loans are sliding downward.

Corn Collapses Back to Multi-Year Lows

What a great buying opportunity for me!

Debt Growth Fuels the Everything Bubble

Fuzzy Math

The US today has 95.4 million American adults not in the workforce. That's about 40% of the adult population. That's more than the number of adults working and paying taxes! But the Bureau of Labor Statistics tells us that we have only 4.1% unemployment.
Screen capture from the BLS' own website:

Someone is lying and doctoring the data!

Smart Money Quietly Exiting the Market

A similar phenomenon occurred during the spring of 2017, but no stock sell-off occurred. Historically, such smart money sell-offs are a bad omen.

Stock Valuations Continue to Rise to New Highs

This image of a margin-adjusted CAPE, provided by Hussman Funds, shows that stocks continue to reach new highs of excessive valuation.

Still Another Record High

"Oh, but this time is different," they say. Nope! That language is actually an expression of a bubble mentality! It is, itself, proof of a bubble. And every bubble in history has ultimately burst. There has yet to be an exception. This one will too!

This Bubble Gonna Burst

Stocks Straight Up Since Mid August

Despite an upwardly-revised GDP forecast, the overall economic data hasn't improved noticeably. This looks more and more bubbly each day. The S&P 500 has closed higher 26 of the past 32 days. We have seen 43 new all-time record highs this year.

Death Through Debt Approaches