Monday, January 3, 2011
Gas Going Higher
Oil and gasoline prices have risen to their highest levels in two years, and analysts say prices could shoot up dramatically this year as the thirst for fuel grows in the U.S. and around the world.
The former head of Shell Oil has warned that gas prices could hit $5 a gallon by 2012 because of fast-growing demand in emerging countries such as China and India, where more and more people are buying cars, combined with restraints on drilling in the U.S. in the wake of last year's disastrous Gulf oil spill.
Less-worrisome forecasts are calling for a rise in gas prices to $3.75 a gallon by spring from today's $3.07 average level, with premium crude prices easily exceeding $100 a barrel this year as demand for oil around the world returns to pre-recession levels last seen in 2007.
"We'll definitely see $100 oil," Carl Larry, president of Oil Outlook and Opinions, told Platts Energy Week TV last week. "The way things are going — the cold weather, supply issues — $100 oil is inevitable and it's on its way." Higher gas prices will follow the lead of oil, as they usually do, he said.
Premium crude prices surged to nearly $92 in New York trading last week before falling back to end at $89.18 at the close of trading Thursday.
Saturday, January 1, 2011
Tight Supplies for Soft Commodities
from WSJ:
NEW YORK—A scarcity of commodities such as cotton, sugar and coffee that propelled prices to historic highs late in 2010 is expected to continue into 2011, and it could mean more prices increases for consumers.
Cotton, sugar and coffee are seen remaining in recent high price ranges as supplies remain low.
Cotton broke a post-Civil War record in December, as supplies from top producers failed to keep up with demand, particularly China's voracious appetite for the fiber. Cotton futures gained 91.5% for the year; the March contract closed 2010 on the InterContinental Exchange at $1.4481 a pound on Friday.
It's Heeeere! Greenhouse Gas Regulation Begins!
As of Sunday, Jan. 2, 2011, the Obama administration is officially regulating greenhouse gas emissions under the Clean Air Act. The White House is under pressure to fulfill its pledge to tackle climate change while avoiding the appearance that it's hindering job growth. What that means immediately is that new and upgraded industrial facilities like power plants and refineries will be forced to install technologies to curb their greenhouse gas emissions.
At first, the greenhouse gas rules will only apply to new and modified plants that would already trigger control requirements based on their emissions of other pollutants regulated by EPA, like soot or smog. Starting in July, large plants will fall under EPA's rules based only on their greenhouse gas output. EPA says phasing in those rules will allow states and other permitting authorities to get used to the process.
The agency is also planning to take over greenhouse gas permitting indefinitely in Texas, where state officials have staunchly refused to get in line with the Obama administration's climate policy. While some states say they are expecting no trouble, industry officials have warned that long delays could occur as authorities work to issue greenhouse gas permits for the first time and as opponents of new projects challenge the emission control requirements in court.
Socialism Sure Sucks!
One of the devastating impacts of socialism that progressives and their collectivist cousins always ignore is high inflation. Socialism promises much and then create staggering amounts of debt that are monetized, resulting in high inflation.
from Reuters:
CARACAS, Dec 31 (Reuters) - Venezuelans worried on Friday that a second devaluation of their currency in 12 months would make life even harder as the socialist government of President Hugo Chavez struggled to turn the economy around.
Already suffering one of the world's highest inflation rates and the only major Latin American economy still in recession after the global financial crisis, they fear the New Year devaluation could hit their livelihoods more.
"It is a blow against the pockets of the workers, against the poorest people," said Robinson Calua, a 50-year-old security guard in downtown Caracas.
Officials say the devaluation announced on Thursday will increase spending and boost growth in South America's biggest oil producer, while easing the pressure on foreign reserves and freeing up dollars for imports.
Survival of the (Least) Fittest
Just One In Five Chance of Survival!
from Reuters:
LONDON (Reuters) - The euro currency area has only a one-in-five chance of surviving in its current form over the next 10 years because of competitive imbalances between its members, a leading British think tank said on Friday.
The Center for Economics and Business Research said Spain and Italy would have to refinance over 400 billion euros ($530 billion) of bonds in the spring, potentially sparking a fresh crisis within the 16-nation euro area.
"The euro might break up at this point, though European politicians are normally able to respond to a crisis," said CEBR Chief Executive Douglas McWilliams in a list of 10 forecasts for 2011.
Sovereign debt crises in Greece and Ireland have rocked euro nations this year, leading some commentators to speculate that Germany could eventually lose patience with bailing out its more profligate neighbors, triggering a split in the currency bloc.
Chancellor Angela Merkel has repeatedly stressed Berlin's commitment to the euro and she said so again in her New Year message to the country on Friday.
"The euro is the foundation of our prosperity," she said. "Germany needs Europe and our common currency. For our own well-being and in order to overcome great worldwide challenges. We Germans assume our responsibility, even when it is sometimes very hard."
McWilliams argued that the deeper imbalances between the euro zone's stronger and weaker economies, which have become increasingly apparent since the 2008 financial crisis, would undermine the project in the long term.
"I suspect that what will break up the euro will be the failure of most of the countries to take the tough medicine necessary to make their economies competitive over the longer term," McWilliams said:
"We give it only a one in five chance of surviving in its present form for 10 years. If the euro doesn't break up, this could be the year when it weakens substantially toward parity with the dollar," he added.
Friday, December 31, 2010
It's a "Wizard of Oz" World!
But the government says there's NO inflation!
So get ready now! Tap your heels together three times and repeat:
"There IS no inflation! There IS no inflation! There IS no inflation!"
You'll be transported quickly to a make-believe world where there's no inflation!
Or you can live in REALITY and look at the prices of commodities! There IS inflation, and its still heating up!
Steve
New Intraday 2010 Crude Oil High
Dollar Bollinger Band Break-Out
The Bollinger Bands in these charts represent two standard deviations of statistical probability. Should break-out today occur and prices close below the lower band, the new Dollar has an 80+% statistical probability of continuing in this direction and forming a new downtrend. Thus, the likelihood of a new Dollar downtrend is relatively high. This in turn is likely to send commodity prices much higher! As you can see on this chart, the four-hour chart on the right shows that this new Dollar downtrend is already well under way. This lower Bollinger Band (on the daily chart) represents a significant support level, but a close below this level has a high statistical probability of continuation. Thus, the next few days will be critical to the emergence or repudiation of this new downtrend. Since the day hasn't closed yet, it is still conceivable that the price of the Dollar Index could rebound before the day is finished. We will know over the course of the next few hours.
Despite this, note that on the same chart, in the red-circled area, we saw a similar breakout in early November (Nov. 4th), which then reversed, with prices rebounding back within the Bollinger Bands. If prices rebound from a break-out back inside the Bollinger Bands, then there is also a strong statistical probability that prices will then have enough momentum to touch the opposite band, as they did in this case, touching the opposite band just eight (trading) days later on November 16th.
If this new Dollar destruction downtrend is confirmed, the weekly chart (not shown) shows the next area of support at around 76.100.
One more notable thought: Today is the last day of the month, quarter, and year! Window-dressing by large funds may also be at work here! Large fund managers may be seeking to lock in profits and/or wash out their losing trades so that they can start the new year fresh. It is wise to keep this fundamental dynamic in mind as well.
May 2010 be a happy and profitable new year!
Commodities Beat Stocks, Bonds, Dollar in 2010
from Bloomberg:
Commodity prices beat gains in stocks, bonds and the dollar this year as China, the biggest user of everything from cotton to copper to soybeans, led the recovery from the first global recession since World War II.
The Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB index of 19 raw materials gained 15 percent through yesterday. The MSCI All Country World Index of stocks rose 13 percent with dividends reinvested. Global bonds returned 4.7 percent, based on Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Broad Market Index, and the U.S. Dollar Index, a gauge against six counterparts, added 2.1 percent. The CRB outpaced the other measures for the first time since 2007.
Investors snapped up raw materials this year as China’s growth, the fastest of any major economy, spurred record demand for sugar and soybeans and rising imports of copper. At the same time, crops were ruined by Russia’s worst drought in at least a half century, flooding in Canada and parched fields in Kazakhstan, Europe and South America.
“This year has been incredibly strong,” said Nic Johnson, who helps manage about $24 billion in commodities at Pacific Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach, California. “You’ve had strong growth from China that put a bid into copper, and global crop problems cause huge rallies.”
This was the first year since 2005 that commodities, stocks, bonds and the dollar all rose as the global economic recovery proved resilient.
Cotton, Silver
Gains in the CRB were led by cotton, which surged 89 percent this year, reaching a record Dec. 21, on speculation that supply would fail to keep pace with rising demand in China. Silver, the precious metal most used in industry, jumped 81 percent as it attracted investors betting on both faster and slower economic growth. Corn jumped 49 percent and coffee climbed to a 13-year high as inventories shrunk and bad weather threatened crops in South America.
China’s economy expanded more than 10 percent this year, according the median of 18 economists’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. While growth will slow to 9 percent next year, that will still be three times the rate of the U.S. and six the times the speed of the euro region, based on Bloomberg surveys of as many as 69 economists.
“There is no doubt that demand is coming from China, and there are other emerging markets where demand grew,” said James Paulsen, who oversees $350 billion as the chief investment strategist at Minneapolis-based Wells Capital Management. “Commodities have gone up because the economy was gearing up. It became a sustainable global economic recovery.”
Materials Rebounded
Raw materials rebounded in the last two quarters, with the CRB surging 27 percent since June 30. That’s the best second- half performance since the index debuted in late 1956. In the first six months, the gauge lost 8.8 percent.
Seventeen of 19 commodities tracked by the CRB rose this year. Natural gas lost 22 percent and cocoa fell 8.8 percent.
In December, the commodity gauge jumped 8.5 percent. That compares with a 7 percent advance for the MSCI All Country World Index and a 0.7 percent drop for bonds. The U.S. Dollar Index lost 2.1 percent. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 6.7 percent with dividends reinvested, and returned 15 percent in 2010.
Returns for commodity investors may be lower than the spot CRB index suggests. The S&P GSCI Total Return Index, tracking the net amount received, rose 7.3 percent this year. When longer-dated contracts cost more than those for immediate delivery, a market structure known as contango, investors pay a premium to maintain their holdings as positions expire.
Financial Crisis
Stocks overcame the worst financial crisis since the 1930s as corporate profits exceeded estimates and central banks kept interest rates near record lows. Boeing Co., Home Depot Inc. and General Electric Co. beat earnings estimates for at least the past four quarters.
Governments have taken unprecedented measures to spur growth and boost confidence, as concerns the debt crisis in Europe would derail the global recovery pushed the MSCI All World Index to a low of 262.64 on May 25. The index posted back- to-back monthly gains in September and October and is headed for the biggest December rally since 1999.
The MSCI All World Index of developed and emerging stocks reached 330.9 on Dec. 29, the highest since Sept. 2, 2008, before the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
‘Honorable Returns’
“It’s good to be crossing the finish line with honorable returns,” said Lawrence Creatura, a Rochester, New York-based fund manager at Federated Investors Inc., which oversees about $340 billion. “The double dip did not occur. The unemployment situation in the U.S., while not improving, did not deteriorate further. Globally, Europe was able to prevent a worst-case scenario.”
U.S. Treasuries, benchmarks for borrowing costs around the world, returned 5.5 percent this year, rebounding from a 3.7 percent loss in 2009, Bank of America figures show.
Bonds rallied from January through August as the U.S. economy threatened to slide back into a recession. They trimmed gains in the last four months of the year, sliding as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke implemented a plan in November to pump $600 billion into the market.
Japanese bonds, the biggest debt market, returned 2.4 percent in 2010 as the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate to “virtually zero.” The rally was more than double the 0.9 percent gain in 2009, based on the Bank of America data.
Financial Bailouts
Greece and Ireland, which sought financial bailouts this year, had the worst-performing bonds among the 26 sovereign markets compiled by the European Federation of Financial Analysts Societies and Bloomberg.
Corporate bonds worldwide returned 7.12 percent this year, compared with 16.3 percent in 2009, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Broad Market Corporate Index. The debt has lost 0.82 percent in December, following a 1 percent drop in November. The securities are poised for the biggest quarterly decline since the three months ended September 2008.
The extra yield investors demand to own corporate bonds instead of government debt has declined to 169 basis points, or 1.69 percentage points, from 176 basis points on Dec. 31, 2009, the index data show. Spreads narrowed this month from 177 basis points on Nov. 30.
“Economies are up and some of the darkest fears of the pessimists did not come to fruition,” Creatura said. “The U.S. and global economies, while they’re not firing on all cylinders, are moving forward.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Debarati Roy in New York at droy5@bloomberg.net
Fresh Economic Crises Dead Ahead in Europe, U.S.
by Simon Johnson at NYT:
Simon Johnson, the former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, is the co-author of “13 Bankers.”
Most experienced watchers of the euro zone are expecting another serious crisis in early 2011, tied to the rollover funding needs of its weaker governments. With debts coming due from March through May, the crisis seems much more predictable than what happened to Greece or Ireland in 2010.
And the investment bankers who fell over themselves to lend to these countries on the way up now lead the way in talking up the prospects for a serious crisis.
This situation is not more preventable for being predictable, because its resolution will involve politically costly steps – which, given how Europe works, can be taken only under duress. Don’t smile at the thought and think, “It can’t happen here,” because this same logic points directly to a deep and morally disturbing crisis in the United States.
The euro zone needs to, and eventually will, take three steps:
Step 1: Agree on greater fiscal integration for a core set of countries. This will not be full fiscal union but some greater sharing of responsibilities for each other’s debts. There is much room for ambiguity in government accounting and great guile at the top of the European political elite, so do not expect something completely clear to emerge.
But Germany will end up underwriting more liabilities for the European core; its opposition Social Democratic Party and the Greens are pushing Chancellor Angela Merkel in this direction, calling her “un-European.”
Step 2: For the core countries, the European Central Bank will receive greater authority to buy up government bonds as needed. Speculators in these securities will be badly burned as necessary. The wild card is whether the Bundesbank president, Axel Weber, will get to take over the central bank in fall 2011 – as expected and as apparently required by Ms. Merkel.
Mr. Weber has been vociferously opposed to exactly this bond-buying course of action. So the immovable Mr. Weber will meet the unstoppable logic of economic events. Good luck, Mr. Weber.
Step 3: One or more weaker countries will drop out of the euro zone, probably becoming rather like Montenegro, which uses the euro as its currency but does not have access to the European Central Bank-run credit system. Greece is probably the flashpoint; when it misses a payment on government debt, why should the central bank continue to accept Greek banks’ bonds, backed at that point by a sovereign entity in default?
The maelstrom will probably sweep aside Portugal and perhaps even Ireland; Spain and Italy will be threatened.
It would be easy to set up pre-emptive programs for Portugal and Spain with the International Monetary Fund, but this will not happen. The political stigma attached to borrowing from the I.M.F. is just too great.
The unfortunate truth is that despite its supposed return to pre-eminence and the renewed swagger of its senior officials, the I.M.F. remains weak and of limited value. It is an effective lender to small European countries under intense pressure — Latvia, Iceland, Greece and so on. But the I.M.F. does not have the resources or the legitimacy to save the bigger countries.
At the end of the day, the Europeans will save themselves, with the measures outlined above, only because there will be no other way to avoid wasting 60 years of political unification. But one or more countries will be forced out of full euro-zone membership (although they are likely to keep the euro as the means of exchange). The costs to everyone involved will be large – and largely unnecessary.
And when the financial markets are done with Europe, they will come to test the fiscal resolve of the United States. All the indications so far are that our politicians will struggle to get ahead of financial market pressure.
There are plenty of places in Europe where you can find an easy political consensus to cut taxes and increase budget deficits. Sadly, this no longer pacifies markets. The American political elite – right and left – believes that we are different from the Europeans because we issue the dollar and therefore have some special privileges forever.
But this is not the 1950s. Asia has risen. Europe will sort itself out and become more fiscally Germanic. The Age of American Predominance is over.
Our leading bankers looted the state, plunged the world into deep recession and cost the United States eight million jobs. Now many of them stand by with sharpened knives and enhanced bonuses – willing to suggest how the salaries and jobs of others can be further cut. Consider the morality of that.
Will no one think hard about what this means for our budget and our political system until it is too late?
Most experienced watchers of the euro zone are expecting another serious crisis in early 2011, tied to the rollover funding needs of its weaker governments. With debts coming due from March through May, the crisis seems much more predictable than what happened to Greece or Ireland in 2010.
And the investment bankers who fell over themselves to lend to these countries on the way up now lead the way in talking up the prospects for a serious crisis.
This situation is not more preventable for being predictable, because its resolution will involve politically costly steps – which, given how Europe works, can be taken only under duress. Don’t smile at the thought and think, “It can’t happen here,” because this same logic points directly to a deep and morally disturbing crisis in the United States.
The euro zone needs to, and eventually will, take three steps:
Step 1: Agree on greater fiscal integration for a core set of countries. This will not be full fiscal union but some greater sharing of responsibilities for each other’s debts. There is much room for ambiguity in government accounting and great guile at the top of the European political elite, so do not expect something completely clear to emerge.
But Germany will end up underwriting more liabilities for the European core; its opposition Social Democratic Party and the Greens are pushing Chancellor Angela Merkel in this direction, calling her “un-European.”
Step 2: For the core countries, the European Central Bank will receive greater authority to buy up government bonds as needed. Speculators in these securities will be badly burned as necessary. The wild card is whether the Bundesbank president, Axel Weber, will get to take over the central bank in fall 2011 – as expected and as apparently required by Ms. Merkel.
Mr. Weber has been vociferously opposed to exactly this bond-buying course of action. So the immovable Mr. Weber will meet the unstoppable logic of economic events. Good luck, Mr. Weber.
Step 3: One or more weaker countries will drop out of the euro zone, probably becoming rather like Montenegro, which uses the euro as its currency but does not have access to the European Central Bank-run credit system. Greece is probably the flashpoint; when it misses a payment on government debt, why should the central bank continue to accept Greek banks’ bonds, backed at that point by a sovereign entity in default?
The maelstrom will probably sweep aside Portugal and perhaps even Ireland; Spain and Italy will be threatened.
It would be easy to set up pre-emptive programs for Portugal and Spain with the International Monetary Fund, but this will not happen. The political stigma attached to borrowing from the I.M.F. is just too great.
The unfortunate truth is that despite its supposed return to pre-eminence and the renewed swagger of its senior officials, the I.M.F. remains weak and of limited value. It is an effective lender to small European countries under intense pressure — Latvia, Iceland, Greece and so on. But the I.M.F. does not have the resources or the legitimacy to save the bigger countries.
At the end of the day, the Europeans will save themselves, with the measures outlined above, only because there will be no other way to avoid wasting 60 years of political unification. But one or more countries will be forced out of full euro-zone membership (although they are likely to keep the euro as the means of exchange). The costs to everyone involved will be large – and largely unnecessary.
And when the financial markets are done with Europe, they will come to test the fiscal resolve of the United States. All the indications so far are that our politicians will struggle to get ahead of financial market pressure.
There are plenty of places in Europe where you can find an easy political consensus to cut taxes and increase budget deficits. Sadly, this no longer pacifies markets. The American political elite – right and left – believes that we are different from the Europeans because we issue the dollar and therefore have some special privileges forever.
But this is not the 1950s. Asia has risen. Europe will sort itself out and become more fiscally Germanic. The Age of American Predominance is over.
Our leading bankers looted the state, plunged the world into deep recession and cost the United States eight million jobs. Now many of them stand by with sharpened knives and enhanced bonuses – willing to suggest how the salaries and jobs of others can be further cut. Consider the morality of that.
Will no one think hard about what this means for our budget and our political system until it is too late?
Venezuela to Devalue AGAIN!
from WSJ:
CARACAS—Venezuela will devalue its "strong bolÃvar" currency on New Year's Day, the government said Thursday, the second such devaluation within a year and at least the fifth major devaluation during the decade-long populist government of President Hugo Chávez.
News of the devaluation came just after the central bank said the Venezuelan economy contracted 1.9% in 2010, the second consecutive year of declining output in the oil-rich nation after a 3.3% decline in 2009.
Both pieces of news suggest Mr. Chávez is having an increasingly difficult time balancing his populist policies with economic reality, according to economists.
Worthless Pieces of Paper
We now live in a world where governments print worthless pieces of paper to buy other worthless pieces of paper that combined with worthless derivatives, finance assets whose values are totally dependent on all these worthless debt instruments. Thus most of these assets are also worth-less. -- Egon von Greyerz, Matterhorn Asset Management
Dollar Tanks, Commodities Rebound
US Dollar - broke below 12-14 support today
Thursday, December 30, 2010
We're Living a Work of Fiction
I love this at Zero Hedge:
Today's must see TV comes from the following interview of Pimm Fox on the consumer and the economy with retail expert Howard Davidowitz, who in 10 minutes provides more quality content and logical thought than we have seen from CNBC guests in probably all of 2010 (except of course for that one time when Erin Burnett kicked out Mike Pento, but that's a different story). Where does one start? Probably at the end: "I am not surprised by the strength of retail sales, because i knew that 30% of consumers are responsible for retail sales, and these 30% did much better because of the performance of capital markets. I don't think it is indicative of anything going forward. I don't think the economy is going to get any better. If you look at our fiscal and monetary policy, we went two trillion in the hole last year. Two trillion... to produce this... and unemployment went up to 9.8%! We've spent two trillion we're printing money we're going bananas. Our balance sheet, we've got $2.6 trillion on there, and what;s on there government securities, and MBS." And here is the kicker for the world's biggest hedge fund, which at least one person besides Zero Hedge appears to get: "If interest rates go up a point Bernanke's bankrupt. Everything he's bought is underwater. All the MBS are underwater, the whole country is underwater." Does anyone see the issue now with why rising interest rates, aside from predicting a "recovery", may also, courtesy of its now $2 billion DV01, "predict" the insolvency of the Federal Reserve?
Some other observations on the retail "renaissance":
- Walmart is 10% of US retail sales, has 150 million customers, and its stock it is down 6 consecutive quarters;
- Sears is the largest department store in America: "their stock is terrible"
- Best Buy had a huge earnings miss
- Toys'R'Us loss increased last quarter
- A&P filed bankruptcy
- Loehmann's filed bankruptcy
- Charming Shoppes is going to close 100 stores
- TJMaxx just liquidated AJ Right
Online sales have to lead you to question the whole retail selling strategy. We have 21 square feet of selling space for every man woman and child in this country. We already have double of what we need. With the explosion of online sales, what happens to all these retail malls and shopping centers which are marginals? Huge changes are going to be taking place as people continue shopping online.... In the end what do you do with the retail space...This is going to be a huge question for retail in the next ten years, that's why Walmart is starting to build smaller stores, that's why Walmart is building more overseas than they are building here. It's going to be the biggest retail change that we've ever seen."The biggest losers: commercial real estate landlords. Read REITs:
Landlords better start figuring it out pretty quick because they already have occupancy problems, rent problems and everything else right now. I don't think the CRE problems are fixed by any means. That's why we are going to close hundreds of community banks going forward, we are going to close hundreds more. Those CRE debts are coming due and they will not be able to be rolled over. We've got lots of problems still coming up in the banking system, and the problems in the real estate issue is here for a long time.In other news, Kool Aid to be served in aisle 5 of the next door Sears box from now until permanent closing time.
Full must watch video after the jump (we are looking for an embeddable version).
h/t etrader
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