Friday, July 16, 2010

Thanks, Congress, for Higher Bank Fees!

Free checking, a banking mainstay of the last decade, could soon go the way of free toasters for new account holders. Banks are already moving to make up the revenue they will lose on lower overdraft and debit card transaction charges by raising fees on other services.
Banks like Wells Fargo, Regions Financial of Alabama and Fifth Third of Ohio, for instance, recently began charging new customers a monthly maintenance fee of $2 to $15 a month — as much as $180 a year — on the most basic accounts. Even TCF Financial of Minnesota, whose marketing mantra championed “totally free checking,” started imposing fees this year in anticipation of the new rules.
To be sure, in many cases customers can escape the new checking account charges by maintaining a minimum balance or by using other banking services, like direct deposit for paychecks and signing up for a debit card.
Still, with checking account fees spreading, Bank of America rolled out a fee-free, bare-bones account on Wednesday, the eve of the Senate vote. The catch? To avoid any charges, customers must forgo using tellers at their local branch, use only Bank of America cash machines, and opt to receive only online statements.

Insights on Contango

from EconomPic blog:

FT Alphaville with a great post "Is ‘cash for commodity’ the biggest trade in town?" explaining why commodity curves are in contango (demand from passive indexers) and the benefit to producers (a cheap source of financing). I have been sitting on the below post explaining how this translates into an investment in a passive commodity strategy (hint... not good) so I thought the time was right to finally post it.

Wikipedia explains roll yield, so I don't have to:

The roll yield is the yield that a futures investor captures when their futures contract converges (or rolls up) to the spot price in a backwardated futures market. The spot price can stay constant, but the investor will still earn returns from buying discounted futures contracts, which continuously roll up to the constant spot price.

Note that in case of a market in contango, the roll yield is negative - since the price of the futures contract trades higher than the spot price, and rolls down to converge towards the spot price.
Said another way, backwardation means the futures price is below the current spot price (i.e. the curve is downward sloping), thus the investor gaining exposure via futures will outperform the underlying spot market (all else equal). Contango means the exact opposite situation (this was explained recently regarding the VIX ETN VXX in the EconomPic post When ETNs Attack). In addition, as explained by FT Alphaville, this negative drag is the "subsidized financing" received by commodity producers "selling" their commodities in the futures market.

How much of an impact does this have? Let's take a look at the impact via the excess roll yield of the S&P GSCI Commodity Index futures vs. spot.



As can be seen above, the futures market has consistently underperformed the spot market since mid-2004. By how much?



A lot...

A Few Key Trading Principles

I own Mark Douglas' book. Great book!

from CrossHairs Trader blog;
What you are about to read has the ability to change your stock trading results for the better.  No.  I am not going to share with you some kind of “secret” indicator or some guru’s prediction. What I am going to share with you is how to properly approach the trading game where rules and the proper mind-set can help propel the average trader to above average ranks. I am enlisting the help of Mark Douglas, who I believe has written the one of the best books on the psychology of successful trading.  In his book, Trading In the Zone, Douglas discusses how a trader can begin to eliminate the emotional risk of trading via a probabilistic mind-set.  A probabilistic mind-set is essential to understanding the market because the market is “always communicating in probabilities.”  In other words, the market does not speak Chinese, English, Russian, or bullish or bearish…it speaks probability.  If we plan on living in China we need to learn Chinese, if Russia then Russian.  If we plan on making a living in the market then we need to learn the language of probability.  A probabilistic mind-set consists of internalizing the following fundamental truths:
1.  Anything can happen. Or as I like to say, anything can happen…and often does. Usually the market does the exact opposite of what we think it should do and when we begin to doubt the market it does exactly what we once thought it should do.  Get it?
2.  You don’t need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money. Trading is not about being right in our arrogant predictions, it is about making money.  We are never going to be able to predict what will happen next either in the market or in life so let’s just get over it once and for all.
3.  There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge. Trading is like tossing a coin: we can five wins in a row or five losses;  we could win one lose one.  Wins and losses are random so do not bet the farm or the crops.
4.  An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another. Call it what we will but if we have a system, a methodology, a strategy, an edge for locating a trade then we have found an indication of a high probability circumstance that has been historically proven to repeat itself over and over again and will probably do so in the future.
5.  Every moment in the market is unique. No matter how many times we have traded an edge the outcome can be different this time and no matter how perfectly matched this pattern is with the last one, this one is truly unique if for no other reason than in this market the participants are not the same as in the last one.  The market is too diverse and too fluid to be put in a box, wrapped up and sold to the next consumer.
If we learn the language of the stock market we can understand how to make money.  Until then it may just be all Greek to us!

U.S. Debt Sinking the Dollar

from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard:
The euro rocketed to a two-month high of $1.29 and sterling jumped two cents to almost $1.54 after the Fed confessed that the US economy may not recover for five or six years. Far from winding down emergency stimulus, the bank may need a fresh blast of bond purchases or quantitative easing.
Usually the dollar serves as a safe haven whenever the world takes fright, and there was plenty of sobering news from China and other quarters on Thursday. Not this time. The US itself has become the problem.
"The worm is turning," said David Bloom, currency chief at HSBC. "We're in a world of rotating sovereign crises. The market seems to become obsessed with one idea at a time, then violently swings towards another. People thought the euro would break-up. Now we're moving into a new phase because we're hearing alarm bells of a US double dip."
Mr Bloom said a deep change is under way in investor psychology as funds and central banks respond to the blizzard of shocking US data and again focus on the fragility of an economy where public debt is surging towards 100pc of GDP, not helped by the malaise enveloping the Obama White House. "The Europeans have aired their dirty debt in public and taken some measures to address it, whilst the US has not," he said.
The Fed minutes warned of "significant downside risks" and a possible slide into deflation, an admission that zero interest rates, $1.75 trillion of QE, and a fiscal deficit above 10pc of GDP have so far failed to lift the economy out of a structural slump.
"The Committee would need to consider whether further policy stimulus might become appropriate if the outlook were to worsen appreciably," it said. The economy might not regain its "longer-run path" until 2016.
"The Fed is throwing in the towel," said Gabriel Stein, of Lombard Street Research. "They are preparing to start QE again. This was predictable because the M3 broad money supply has been contracting for months."
The Fed minutes amount to a policy thunderbolt, evidence of how quickly the recovery has lost steam. Just weeks ago the Fed was mapping out withdrawal of stimulus.
Goldman Sachs said it expects the euro to rise to $1.35 by the end of the year. The yen will appreciate to ¥83, through the pain barrier for most of Japan's big exporters. The new twist is that SAFE, China's $2.4 trillion fund, has begun buying record amounts of Japanese bonds, a shift in reserve allocation away from the dollar.
The signs of a deep and sudden slowdown in the US are becoming ever clearer as the "sugar rush" from the Obama fiscal stimulus wears off and the inventory boost fades. California, Illinois and other states are cutting spending, tightening US fiscal policy by 0.8pc of GDP.
Thursday's plunge in the Philadelphia Fed's July index of new manufacturing orders to –4.3 suggests that the economy may have buckled abruptly, as it did in mid-2008. The Economic Cycle Research Institute's ECRI leading indicator has tumbled, reaching –8.3pc last week. This points to a sharp slowdown or recession within three months.
While US port data looked buoyant in June, the details were troubling. Outbound traffic from Long Beach fell from 139,000 containers in May to 116,000 in June. Shipments from Los Angeles fell from 161,000 to 155,000. This drop in exports is worsening the US trade deficit, eroding the dollar.
The US workforce has shrunk by a 1m over the past two months as discouraged jobless give up the hunt. Retail sales have fallen for the past two months. New homes sales crashed to 300,000 in May after tax credits ran out, the lowest since records began in 1963. Mortgage applications have fallen by 42pc to 13-year low since April. Paul Dales at Capital Economics said the "shadow inventory" of unsold properties has risen to 7.8m. "The double dip in housing has begun," he said.
Alcoa, CSX, Intel, and JP Morgan have reported good earnings, but they mostly did so in July 2008 just before their shares collapsed. Such earnings rarely catch turning points and can be a lagging indicator. Profits have been boosted in this cycle by cost-cutting, which is self-defeating for the economy as a whole.
The minutes confirm the Fed is split down the middle over QE. Fed watchers say the Board in Washington wants to be ready to launch another round of bond purchases if necessary, pushing the banks balance sheet from $2.4 trillion towards $5 trillion, but hawks at the regional banks are highly sceptical.
A study by the San Francisco Fed said the interest rates need to be –4.5pc to stabilise the economy under the Fed's "rule of thumb". Since this is impossible, massive QE needs to make up the difference.
Tim Congdon from International Monetary Research said the US authorities have botched policy response. "They are forcing banks to contract lending by raising their capital asset ratios. They have let M3 shrink by 1pc a month, as in the early 1930s. The solution is simple. The Fed must raise the level of deposits by purchasing bonds from the non-banking system as the Bank of England has done. They refuse to do it," he said.

ECRI Plunges to -9.8%!

This is just a hair's breadth from calling for a new recession!

from Zero Hedge blog:
The ECRI Leading Economic Index just dropped to a fresh reading of 120.6 (flat from a previously revised 121.5 as the Columbia profs scramble to create at least a neutral inflection point): this is now a -9.8 drop, and based on empirical evidence presented previously by David Rosenberg, and also confirming all the macro economic data seen in the past two months, virtually assures that the US economy is now fully in a double dip recession scenario."It is one thing to slip to or fractionally below the zero line, but a -3.5% reading has only sent off two head-fakes in the past, while accurately foreshadowing seven recessions — with a three month lag. Keep your eye on the -10 threshold, for at that level, the economy has gone into recession … only 100% of the time (42 years of data)." We are there.

Complete collapse in the long-term chart:

Consumer Confidence Plunges

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. consumer sentiment plummeted in early July, hitting the lowest level since August, according to media reports of a survey released Friday by Reuters and the University of Michigan. The UMich index fell to 66.5 in early July from 76 in late June. The June reading was the highest level in more than two years. The average level of the index is around 87. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected a July reading of 74.3. A separate reading on consumer confidence also recently plunged, with consumers worried abut weak hiring and the economy.

Stock Go South In a Hurry As Consumer Confidence In Freefall!

Dow down 150 points so far! And that's just the first 30 minutes! Wow!
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks opened lower Friday as investors registered their disappointment with the latest round of earnings reports after Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc. and General Electric Co. all posted lower-than-expected revenue.

One Unhappy Open!

Consumer Spending Slows

NEW YORK, July 16, 2010 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- The Deloitte Consumer Spending Index (Index) declined in June for the second consecutive month, once again due to weakness in real wages and the housing market. The Index attempts to track consumer cash flow as an indicator of future consumer spending.

Treasuries Slow, China Reduces Holdings

WASHINGTON—Overall inflows into U.S. assets slowed in May, including from China, which cut its portfolio, Treasury Department data showed Friday.
China's holdings of Treasurys fell $32.5 billion to $867.7 billion, but maintained the top position among foreign countries.
Selling by China since late last year for four consecutive months raised some concerns that the largest creditor nation to the U.S. may be reducing its exposure to the dollar, but analysts said the move has partly reflected a portfolio rebalancing into longer-term U.S. securities. In the two months prior to May, China increased its holdings.

Signs of Exhaustion?

Doug Kass tweeted me this morning saying that he has liquidated his stock index long position, and taken a short one.

Federal Income Tax Recepts Still Falling

from Bizzy Blog:
It’s bad enough the federal government’s official budget deficit has topped $1 trillion for the second year in a row, according to the just-released June 2010 Monthly Treasury Statement. But, focusing only on receipts for the moment, a closer look makes it obvious that the situation is even worse than it appears. Don’t expect the establishment press to take any interest in the annoying but revealing details that follow.
Here is what Martin Crutsinger of the Associated Press wrote about federal collections in his Tuesday report on Uncle Sam’s current month and fiscal year deficit:

Through the first nine months of the current budget year, government revenues have totaled $1.6 trillion, up 0.5 percent from the same period a year ago.
True enough, but look at the components:

USTmts0610details
Every major component except corporate income taxes is down substantially. But it’s the last item that deserves some attention. What are these "miscellaneous receipts," and why are they up by so much (take them away, and year-to-date receipts have declined by about 1.8%).
Answer: Over $54 billion of it is from the Federal Reserve. As best I can tell, it represents dividends and interest on TARP lending and investments. This component of miscellaneous receipts is up by a factor of about 2.7 from fiscal 2009’s comparable year-to-date amount of $19.9 billion.
So the only reason receipts are up is that the Fed got into the direct lending and investment business. Tax collections that are indicators of the health of the overall economy are still down over last year, which was in turn down about 18% from the same period in fiscal 2008.
That’s not much comfort, is it?

Thursday, July 15, 2010

Foreclosures Reach New Record

July 15 (Reuters) - Banks repossessed a record number of U.S. homes in the second quarter, but slowed new foreclosure notices to manage distressed properties on the market, real estate data company RealtyTrac said on Thursday.
The root problems of job losses and wage cuts persist, making a sustained U.S. housing recovery elusive.
Banks took control of 269,962 properties in the second quarter, up 5 percent from the prior quarter and a 38 percent spike from the second quarter of last year, RealtyTrac said in its midyear 2010 foreclosure report.
Repossessions will likely top 1 million this year.
"The underlying conditions haven't improved," RealtyTrac senior vice president Rick Sharga said in an interview.
The housing market still grapples with "unemployment, economic displacement in general, and still sits on over 5 million seriously delinquent loans that in all likelihood will at some point go into foreclosure," he said.
In 2005, the last "normal" year in housing, Sharga said, about 530,000 households got a foreclosure notice and banks took over a comparatively minuscule 100,000 houses.
This year more than 3 million households are likely to get at least one foreclosure filing, which includes notice of default, scheduled auction and repossession, Irvine, California-based RealtyTrac forecasts.
In the first half of the year, foreclosure filings were made on 1.65 million properties. That was down 5 percent from the last half of 2009 but up 8 percent from the first half of last year.
One in every 78 households got at least one foreclosure filing in the first six months of this year.

Triple Dose of Bad Manufacturing News

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The manufacturing sector, which has been the strength of the U.S. economy, is slowing down, according to three separate reports released by the Federal Reserve on Thursday.
The timeliest data show further weakening in July after manufacturing output fell in June for the first time in a year.
"Economic growth continues to soften into the third quarter," wrote Neil Dutta, an economist for Bank of America's Merrill Lynch.
U.S. stock markets were down about 0.8% after the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank said the Philly Fed manufacturing sentiment survey declined to 5.1 in July from 8 in June and 21.4 in May. The reading is above zero, which shows the sector is still expanding, but the breadth of that expansion has diminished.
Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting a small gain in the Philly Fed to 10 in July. See our complete economic calendar.
The Empire state index from the New York Fed also fell to 5.1 in July from 19.6 in June, compared with expectations of a drop to 19.
"Today's U.S. reports revealed a remarkably weak round of July sentiment readings from both the New York and Philly Fed surveys that trumped the surprisingly firm round of industrial production figures for June, to leave a market focused on the slowing in the U.S. factory sector as we pass the mid-year mark," wrote analysts for Action Economics.
The details of the Philly Fed report were "particularly negative," wrote Steven Wieting, an economist for Citigroup Global Markets. The new-orders index fell to negative 4.3 from 9, its first negative reading in 12 months. The shipments index slowed to 4 from 14.2.

Finance Reform Bill Empowers Unions and Environmentalists, Advances Progressive Agenda, Hiring Quotas

The financial reform bill expected to clear Congress this week is chock-full of provisions that have little to do with the financial crisis but cater to the long-standing agendas of labor unions and other Democratic interest groups.
Principal among them is a measure to make it easier for unions, environmental groups and other activist organizations that hold shares to put their representatives on the boards of directors of every corporation in the United States.
The so-called "proxy access" provision, which activist groups say they will use to try to improve oversight of corporate financial practices, has provoked a backlash from the Business Roundtable, U.S. Chamber of Commerce and other major non-Wall Street business groups.
"This legislation includes provisions totally unrelated to the financial crisis which may disrupt Americas fragile economic recovery" and lead to increasing political battles in the boardrooms, said John J. Castellani, president of the roundtable.
Business groups are also rankled that the legislation would impose costly new burdens on airlines, utilities and other non-financial businesses that were victims rather than villains in the crisis, simply because they use financial derivatives to hedge their businesses against risks such as fluctuations in oil prices, interest rates and currencies.
Such hedging practices played no role in the crisis, though they helped many businesses weather the financial turbulence and recession that followed in the aftermath of the Wall Street storm.
Other provisions of the financial legislation, which goes before the full Senate on Thursday for a vote and likely passage, favor Democratic constituencies directly by requiring banks and federal agencies to hire and do more business with them.
The bill would create more than 20 "offices of minority and women inclusion" at the Treasury, Federal Reserve and other government agencies, to ensure they employ more women and minorities and grant more federal contracts to more women- and minority-owned businesses.
The agencies also would apply "fair employment tests" to the banks and other financial institutions they regulate, though their hiring and contracting practices had little or nothing to do with the 2008 financial crisis.
"The interjection of racial and gender preferences into America's financial sector deserves greater media exposure" before Congress debates and passes the massive 2,400-page bill, said Kevin Mooney, a contributing editor for Americans for Limited Government's daily newsletter.
The powerful new consumer protection agency that is the centerpiece of the reform bill also would provide substantial employment opportunities and funding for Democratic and social-activist groups such as the Association of Community Organizers for Reform Now (ACORN), critics say.
Rather than focus on the abuses in the mortgage-lending market that led to the crisis, the new consumer agency would have broad-ranging powers to regulate and punish virtually any company that has a financial relationship with consumers - even those that had nothing to do with the crisis, said Sen. Richard C. Shelby, Alabama Republican.
Mr. Shelby, the ranking member of the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee, sought to craft a more tailored role for the agency in weeks of negotiation over the Senate bill.
"During our negotiations on the consumer bureaucracy, my Democrat friends were not focused on the mortgage market. Their sights were set on the rest of the economy," he said. "The new bureaucracy is an enormous reach across virtually every segment of our economy, and a massive expansion of government influence in our daily financial lives."
Sen. Bob Corker, a Tennessee Republican who also sought to help write a bipartisan Senate bill more narrowly focused on the problems that led to the crisis, said he fears that an activist director of the consumer agency could use agency power to direct loans to favored constituencies, regardless of whether the loans are sound or pose risks to the banking system.
"This may sound a little far-fetched, but you can have the wrong person in this position - there's no board, there's really no check and balance - that you can imagine could use this organization to try to create social justice in the financial system," he said.
Like the corporate boardroom provisions, many of the activities within the reach of the new consumer agency had "absolutely nothing - zero - to do with the financial crisis," Mr. Corker said. "But this has become a Christmas tree for those kinds of things, because people realize it's something that's going to pass."

Back to the Supposed Safe Harbor of Treasuries

Manufacturing Weakens

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks slid sharply Thursday, derailing a seven-day climb for the Dow industrials, as economic data illustrated a slowing recovery. The reports dimmed enthusiasm over strong earnings from financial powerhouse J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.
After seven consecutive sessions of gains, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DOW:DJIA) fell more than 120 points, and was lately off 91 points, or 0.9%, at 10,275.37. All but one of the Dow's 30 components tallied losses, with Bank of America Corp. (NYSE:BAC) the greatest laggard, off 3.1%..
The S&P 500 Index (MARKET:SPX) fell 10.32 points, or 1%, with financials weighing the most among its 10 industry groups, followed by the technology sector.
The Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ:COMP) shed 22.59 points, or 1%, to 2,227.23.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures rose modestly, up 80 cents to $1,207.80 an ounce, while crude-oil futures slid below $76 a barrel.
For every stock rising, more than four were falling on the New York Stock Exchange, where 222 million shares had traded as of 11:05 a.m. Eastern.
Regional manufacturing indexes in New York and Philadelphia fell in July, while a government report pointed to mild growth in industrial output across the country.
"Manufacturing has been the bright spot in this recovery but now it needs more clarity on end demand growth which is just not there," Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak, wrote in an email.
Separately, the government reported initial claims for jobless benefits declined last week, but analysts attributed the drop largely to seasonal factors.
The first of the largest U.S. banks to report, J.P. Morgan said it earned $4.8 billion in the second quarter, which was better than Wall Street anticipated. CEO Jamie Dimon downplayed optimism, calling returns in the bank's consumer-lending business "unacceptable." See more on $1.5 billion cut in J.P. Morgan's loan loss reserves.

Philly Manufacturing Survey Sends Stocks Into Tailspin Despite Improved Jobless Claims

I must say I was shocked when initial jobless claims fell by the most in months, but stocks dropped. This was the likely cause. It looks like we may be putting in a bottom, however. The recent rally is looking a bit soggy now.  We've also bounced lower off the 200-day moving average.


NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks furthered their fall on Thursday after another weak manufacturing report, this one from the Philadelphia region. The Dow Jones Industrial Average /quotes/comstock/10w!i:dji/delayed (DJIA 10,260, -107.09, -1.03%) fell 72.88 points to 10,293.84. The S&P 500 Index /quotes/comstock/21z!i1:in\x (SPX 1,083, -11.74, -1.07%) shed 8.71 points to 1,086.46. The Nasdaq Composite /quotes/comstock/10y!i:comp (COMP 2,225, -25.32, -1.13%) dropped 17.39 points to 2,232.45.

Food Inflation Is Coming!

Corn daily chart

Soybean daily chart
Wheat daily chart

Still More Dollar Devastation!