Manipulated Markets, Not Free Markets

Guess which one of these headlines has affected stock prices today. The Dow is currently up over 400 points. How can stocks be so bullish when today's economic data is so bearish? Central bankers, that's how! Today's markets are manipulated. They are no longer free markets!

Food Crop Prices Accelerate Higher

Each day, I hope that farm crops will get planted and prices will reverse. However, instead of reversing, close attention to the last few candles on this chart show an acceleration higher instead!

Bond Market Flashes SIgns of Trouble Ahead

Interest rates are collapsing in the bond market, which is a sign that investors are very worried.

Look out belooooow!
“Recent data points suggest US earnings and economic risk is greater than most investors may think,” says Chief Equity Strategist Michael Wilson of Morgan Stanley.

Food Commodity Prices Continue to Climb

I wonder when we'll begin to see food prices rise this sharply in t\he grocery stores. Corn is up another 8+ cents (32+ ticks) today. Other food commodities are up also.

Crop Catastrophe Coming?

Another scary headline. Wake up, America!

"The food that each one of us eats every day is produced by our farmers, and right now our farmers are truly facing a nightmare scenario." -- Michael Snyder

Are We Facing a Food Crop Crisis Soon?

This is the latest headline that I saw today that portends a possible food crisis by late this summer.

I'm not surprised because the corn commodity price accelerated higher last Friday. I wonder if this is a sign of things to come. I had hoped and expected that prices might reverse and go lower, but the price accelerated higher instead. Note the last few candlesticks on the right that were even longer and closed even higher on Friday this last week.And it's not just corn, either. Other food commodities are skyrocketing as well!

The main reason for this is that North America has been very wet this spring. Much of America's midwest farm land is flooded.
Why isn't this in the news headlines?

Food Inflation Run Amok!

Agricultural commodity prices continue to rise sharply. This is the price of corn over the past several days. Other agricultural commodities are rising as well. I wonder when food prices in the stores will begin to reflect this sharp rise. Flooded farms are the cause! Much of the United States has had a very wet spring this year, and many farms are flooded. Planting is only at 30%. It is typically more than double that amount by this time in May.
This first chart is the 4 hour chart:

This second chart is the daily one. It shows the magnitude of the price increase over just a limited number of days!

Will Food Inflation Leap This Year?

From Successful Farming website:
"Mired by a rainy and chilly spring, U.S. farmers may soon give up on planting corn in rain-soaked parts of the Farm Belt because it is getting too late for money-making yields, said economist Scott Irwin of the University of Illinois. “I truly believe we are in ‘black swan’ territory as far as late corn planting is concerned,” he said over the weekend, using a term popularized during the financial crisis a decade ago." 
The US Department of Agriculture reported last week that only 30% of U.S. corn acres were planted as of May 12; that's the fourth-slowest in records back to 1980 -- way behind the five-year average of 67%. 
But perhaps there's still hope for a good crop this year. Reuters also had this:
"Rain-driven planting delays for U.S. corn have been dragged out long enough to cause a noticeable rally in Chicago-traded futures, but speculators were not yet ready to shed their enormously bearish positions as of early last week."

Food Commodity Prices Skyrocket!

The weather-related events in North America are keeping farmers in the United States from planting their crops. One article I read last week indicated that corn planting by mid-May was only at 30%, whereas it typically is at 66% most years. This has caused the price of corn to leap higher and higher! The chart below shows the price of corn, but is similar for other food and grain commodities also!

The following quote is from Reuters this morning:

   "The talk between traders is that "prevented planted" acres
for corn may be as high as 5 million acres," said Ole Houe,
director of advisory services at brokerage IKON Commodities. 
    "Whereas in the past, we have never seen it above 3.6
million acres and then there is the debate over "yield drag"
from later planted corn."
    Showers over the next 10 days are threatening to further
slow planting from the Dakotas to Illinois, regions that have
endured torrential rain this spring, the Commodity Weather Group
said.

Stocks Rise to Record Highs Even As Economy Weakens

The bubble grows! Central bankers are nervous and have shown signs that they may engage in quantitative easing again. This is not surprising, given the economic evidence. However, there is also evidence that QE may have run its course, and may not be effective the next time around. Previous central bank presidents indicated that a suppression of 4% or more is needed, but current US Treasury interest rates are only about 2%-2.25%, so another round of QE may be ineffective the next time around.

Crude Oil Goes Ballistic

Tensions between the Saudis and the United States have sent the price of crude oil soaring today.

This situation reminds me of when the Arabs issued an embargo against the US, and gasoline prices in the US soared, and there was a shortage of gasoline in the US for a time. It also lead to a recession in the US. History repeats itself?

The Coming Carnage

Great article. 

Corn Crop Clobbered by Hurricane Michael

Note that until Hurricane Michael, corn had been trending lower for the last few days, but when the hurricane hit, prices leaped! This is one of the worst hurricanes to hit the United States in decades.

Dow Crashes 800+ Points!

Ouch!

Longest Bull Market Ever Recorded

This stock market smells more bubbly every day!

Stocks Soar on Good Trade News

Stocks soared today on news that Trump and Juncker reached a good trade deal. The S&P is just a few points below the highs reached in February.

Trade War Threat Sends Commodities Cliff Diving

These charts for corn and crude oil are symbolic of what commodity prices are doing under the threat of a trade war.

Corn Collapses

I was shocked this morning to see that the price of corn had dropped 10 cents. That's a huge drop!

Crude Continues to Ramp Up

Gas prices will soon begin to reflect the higher price of crude oil. We have now hit a higher price that the high hit in mid-May.

Climbing Crude Oil

This isn't going to be good for the economy. Crude oil is up five of the past six days.

Crude Oil Climbs Sharply

I was quite shocked at how sharply the price of crude oil climbed Friday. I understand that OPEC was unable to agree on production increases.

Bloomberg: "Equities in Denial"

Bloomberg writer Richard Breslow this morning expressed a rather sanguine assessment of the current equity markets, despite price strength.

Fed Has Barely Begun to Reduce Its Balance Sheet

I was stunned when I saw this chart. After all that we've been told that the Federal Reserve has reduced its balance sheet and begun to normalize, this chart shows that it hasn't happened.

Plunging Corn

I'm looking forward to being able to take advantage of this drop in the price of corn.

The Smart Money Is Running for the Exits

One of the signs of a maturing bubble that is showing froth and may be about to burst is that the really big money of professional investors runs for the exits. They see trouble ahead, and they quietly exit the markets so as to preserve their capital when the market collapses.

Crude Oil Peaks -- for Now!

On May 24, the Russians and Saudis announced that they would soon increase oil production. Since then, the price of crude oil has reversed, and the price has declined significantly. And we have seen a more recent decline in the price of gasoline. 

Unemployment at 3.8%, But Adults Not In Labor Force Hits Record High

Once again, I find it interesting that the BLS announced that unemployment had reached an 18-year low of 3.8%. But at the same time, the BLS announced on the same day that the number of American adults not in the labor force hit a new all-time record high of 95.9 million! That's the highest in American history! Ouch!

Shiller PE at High Levels

Crude Oil Going Sky High

Crude oil price rocketed more than $2 per barrel today. And this evening, it was up another 55 cents just minutes ago. We must prepare for even higher gasoline prices. Ouch!

Something That Doesn't Add Up!

This morning, I saw two articles on the same website. One indicates that we have hit a new record number of Social Security recipients in the United States:

And this headline indicating that we have hit a new record number of American adults not in the workforce:

That figure was just 94 million in July of 2016.
And yet we're also being told that the unemployment rate has dropped to just 3.9%!

The numbers don't add up! But worse than that, they are unsustainable! We now have so many people receiving government assistance in the US that a disaster is inevitable!

Tumbling Treasuries As Stocks Climb Sharply Higher

A perceived "de-escalation" of tensions with Russia in Syria is sending stocks sharply higher, and US Treasuries sharply lower today. Wall St is happy today! The Dow was up 350 points as I wrote this.

Hints That Market May Be Reaching Top

I couldn't help noticing this morning that these two headlines hinted at a potential for the current asset markets to be reaching their zeniths. I also noticed another headline, which is not posted here, that real estate refinance loans are sliding downward.

Corn Collapses Back to Multi-Year Lows

What a great buying opportunity for me!

Debt Growth Fuels the Everything Bubble

Fuzzy Math

The US today has 95.4 million American adults not in the workforce. That's about 40% of the adult population. That's more than the number of adults working and paying taxes! But the Bureau of Labor Statistics tells us that we have only 4.1% unemployment.
Screen capture from the BLS' own website:

Someone is lying and doctoring the data!

Smart Money Quietly Exiting the Market

A similar phenomenon occurred during the spring of 2017, but no stock sell-off occurred. Historically, such smart money sell-offs are a bad omen.

Stock Valuations Continue to Rise to New Highs

This image of a margin-adjusted CAPE, provided by Hussman Funds, shows that stocks continue to reach new highs of excessive valuation.

Still Another Record High

"Oh, but this time is different," they say. Nope! That language is actually an expression of a bubble mentality! It is, itself, proof of a bubble. And every bubble in history has ultimately burst. There has yet to be an exception. This one will too!

This Bubble Gonna Burst

Stocks Straight Up Since Mid August

Despite an upwardly-revised GDP forecast, the overall economic data hasn't improved noticeably. This looks more and more bubbly each day. The S&P 500 has closed higher 26 of the past 32 days. We have seen 43 new all-time record highs this year.

Death Through Debt Approaches

One More Can-Kicking!