Manufacturing Struggles

 

And just weeks ago, manufacturing was one of the few bright spots!
It's interesting also to note that while construction spending climbed, sales have been weak in the housing market. Home mortgage defaults climbed 66% year over year. 

Economic Data Declines Even As Stocks Rise

From Jim Quinn of the Burning Platform blog:

"Investors are now facing the second most extreme episode of equity market overvaluation in U.S. history (current valuations on similar measures already exceed those of 1929). The belief that zero interest rates offer no alternative but to accept risk in stocks is valid only if one believes that stocks cannot experience profoundly negative returns. We know precisely how similar valuation extremes have worked out for investors over the completion of the market cycle, and those outcomes have never been deferred indefinitely. The only question at present is how many grains are left in the hourglass."

The employment situation continues to deteriorate on a daily basis as Challenger, Grey & Christmas has reported layoff announcements by major corporations in 2015 that already exceed the total announcements in 2014. This is the reality versus the BLS 5.1% unemployment rate fantasy. Retail sales, which make up two thirds of the economy, are putrid and confirm the dreadful employment market. Corporate profits among S&P 500 companies have fallen for two straight quarters and are picking up steam in a negative direction, as accounting shenanigans cannot disguise falling revenue forever. Earnings per share estimates for future quarters fall on a daily basis.

Every manufacturing and services survey flash recession warning. Despite propaganda from the NAR, government and the MSM, the housing market is dead in the water. Major home builders continue to report declining orders as new home sales are plummeting and existing home sales, without NAR adjustments, show a negative trend.

Our Prevaricator Speaker of the House

Buckling Boehner is a bold-faced liar!

Saying that we have to incur MORE debt in order to pay existing debt is like saying that someone can't pay their current credit card bill without an increase in their credit limit. It's absurdly false on the face of it! We could pay existing debt from current revenue. That would NOT require a default. It WOULD require cuts in spending! But Boehner wouldn't hear of that!

Boehner is a primo prevaricator, just like the current US President! And Paul Ryan will be no better! The GOP has sold us out once again!

Bad News Is Good News -- Again!

-- Bloomberg News' Richard Breslow, 

FX trader and fund manager

 "The economic numbers released yesterday can best be described with a reference to wheels falling off the bus. And it wasn’t just retail sales and PPI in the U.S. but numbers from around the world, including China. So, of course, when I woke up this morning the obvious first question to ask was, how much are equities up?" -- Bloomberg News' Richard Breslow, FX trader and fund manager

It used to be that the stock market traded higher or lower based upon corporate earnings and the economic news. Now, those things are irrelevant. All that matters now is what the central bankers are saying they're going to do today. One hedge fund manager recently stated, "There is no market, just interventions."

Was Yesterday the Game Changer?

Stocks were down 280, but have rallied 100 points in the past hour.

Obama's Fauxcovery!

Obama's fauxcovery! Nine charts that prove the failure of Obama! It's mirage economics!

The Central Banker's Roller Coaster

GDP was revised higher today, but mostly due to inventory builds. Not good!

It's the Debt, Stupid!

Central Bank Emperors Have No Clothes!

RBS' Alberto Gallo,

"Policymakers responded to the financial crisis with easy monetary policy and low interest rates. The critics — including us — argued against 'solving a debt crisis with more debt.' Put differently, we said that QE was necessary, but not sufficient for a recovery. We are now coming to the moment of reckoning: central bankers look naked, and markets have nothing else to believe in."

When Do We See the Consequences?

After being up 350 points today, the Dow closed down 200 points instead. When will we begin to see the consequences? When will a Bear Stearns collapse again? When will be the Lehman Bros moment?

Today's collapse:

The Dow has lost about 2500 points since late July!

Do Bubbles Burst? Yes!

I believe we'll see a bounce back soon, but this is only the opening salvo. All bubbles burst! There has never been a financial bubble that didn't eventually burst! There is another major financial crisis brewing. It will be an even bigger one! "You ain't seen nothin' yet!" Eventually, we'll see a US government fiscal crisis too! And both political parties will be responsible!

Ouch! Recession Warning!

S&P 500 is now negative for the year! And this morning, filings for unemployment increased four consecutive weeks, for the first time in five years!

St Louis Fed Admits QE Failure, at Cost of Doubling the Debt!

What More Need Be Said?

Stocks leaped more than 240 points today. China announced that they will engage in quantitative easing, just and Japan, Europe, and the US have done! Meanwhile, earnings reports were "downbeat".

Our Mirage Economy! A House of Cards!

Following headlines like these...

 we get stock market reactions like this:

Why? Wall St have become so addicted to injections of money from central bankers, that they now dismiss all risk! Their faith in the false gods of central bankers, that they don't care about real, robust, organic economic growth any more! It's the reaction of an addict!

Treasuries Scream "Fear!"

Despite reassurances from the Fed, the skyrocketing Treasury bond market is sending the message that investors are extremely worried. They're buying US government bonds as if there's no tomorrow. That means only one thing: they're worried!

Even as the Fed talks about possibly raising interest rates, investors don't believe they will. They're buying bonds, which lowers interest rates. That means that their fears outweigh what the Fed is saying!

Jobs Propaganda!

Dreadful Jobs Report Sends Stocks Higher!

What is wrong with this picture? 

And yet stocks leaped higher following this news!

What More Need Be Said?

Housing Bubble Defined

These homebuilders are shooting themselves in the foot! They'll build more and more homes just as the economy begins to sink! And the Fed is expected to begin raising interest rates when they meet Tuesday and Wednesday this week! What impact will higher interest rates have on housing, both sales and affordability?! Well imagine that -- another housing bubble, right before our very eyes! POP goes the bubble!

Do These Headlines Today Look Like Prosperity To You?

In a robust economy with strong demand, this would never be the case::

Factory Orders: Getting Worse!

Today's Headlines: UGLY!

"Welcome To The Contraction": Q1 GDP Drops By 0.7%, Corporate Profits Crash

 U.S. Households Under Pressure: Stagnant Incomes, Rising Basic Expenses

Is Bad News, Bad Again? Europe And US Stocks Slump

GDP Report Confirms Global Trade Is Crashing, And Why That Is Good News For Some
Consumer Sentiment Slumps To 6-Month Lows, Current Conditions Tumble
Chicago PMI Bounce Is Dead, Crashes Back Near 6 Year Lows

How Japan's Unemployment Rate Dropped Even As 280,000 People Lost Their Jobs

Kiss Your Pension Fund Good-Bye

Martin Armstrong explains that a Supreme Court decision opens the door for the government to confiscate all private pension funds.

"Monday’s unanimous ruling sends a warning to employers that they now must improve their plans, as it is now an obligation to project employees. This comes just in time for the next step is government to seize private funds and prosecute employers who poorly chose a fund manager. This fits perfectly, and is just in time for the Obama Administration’s next assault as they prepare a landmark change of its own by issuing rules requiring financial advisers to put the interest of customers ahead of their own. This creates a very grey area wide enough to justify public seizure of pension funds under management."

Read the rest here. 

Stocks Sell Off In Heavy Volume

The VIX spiked today, with stocks selling off in heavy volume. The Dow closed down 190 points. A word to the wise...

Economic Headlines = Data Down, Stocks UP!

Go figure:

4 Macro Data Misses, Stocks Surge Higher to Fresh Record Highs

"What a world, what a world!" This morning, the macro data has missed expectations -- four for four -- and yet stocks are rising sharply, to new all-time record highs! Wall St bankers have never been so dismissive of the bad economic news!

BofA Admits That GDP Data is Doctored

 ...er, I mean "seasonally adjusted"! And they admit that they're in collusion with the San Francisco Fed to do it! Where are the news media reports about this? Oh, I forgot! They are, after all, the Propaganda Press!

Bank of America admits that the GDP data is doctored. We're being propagandized by our government, our central bankers, and the bank economists.
"Currently, 1Q GDP is likely to come in around -1.2%, so fixing the data gets us back above zero." Fixing indeed. Do you see that? They admit that they "fix" the data to "get us back above zero"!

This morning, they all but admitted that they are in collusion with the San Francisco Fed to fabricate the economic data to make it appear positive, even when it isn't:

"Glenn Rudebusch and colleagues at the San Francisco Fed argue that residual seasonality could exist because not all the components of GDP are adjusted and the adding-up process could create further seasonality issues. They note that the risk of problems is high in 1Q, because the overall economy has a major “seasonal recession” in 1Q and, hence, big adjustments are required to normalize the data. "

They use fancy and arcane terms like "seasonal issues" and "normalize the data" to obscure the reality that in Q1 2015, the US economy was negative and went into recession. So they "seasonalize" the data to make it positive, even when it was NEGATIVE!

So the banks, the central planners, and the government are all now in collusion to mislead the American people. That's propaganda. Agitprop! And we thought that only the Soviet Union did that!

Welcome to Amerika, comrades!

More notes:

It's not good enough now that starting in August 2013, they changed the way the calculate GDP, adding in "intangibles" to artificially boost GDP. Now, they're doing "seasonal adjustments" -- repeatedly -- to make it appear higher than it really is!

"... the US itself revised its own historical GDP higher by about $500 billion when it retroactively added the benefits of intangibles, trademarks, and changed the way pensions were capitalized, economists have been stumped how to rejigger numbers which refuse to comply with central-planning's "best "intentions of boosting not only the S&P to record highs, but also the economy which somehow crashes every time there is snow in the winter." Zero Hedge this morning!

Note how they obscure the language by using arcane verbiage to mislead:
"The bottom line: adjustment problems are quite real and probably bias down 1Q GDP growth by at least 1.5%, and bias up other quarters by about 0.5%."
Do you see that? They admit that 1st Quarter GDP was DOWN 1.5%, but they fabricated an "adjustment" to artificially boost it to a positive number, partly by claiming that it was just bad weather! As if winter shouldn't appear in winter! 

Housing Starts Surge In Sparse "Good News" For 2015

This morning, housing starts data showed a surprisingly good surge in "starts":

At the same time, however, housing SALES have been disappointing, so it's likely that this increase in construction is a more a manifestation of builder sentiment, than consumer sentiment. It may lead to oversupply! Headlines related to housing sales were weak just in recent days, so this may end up being counterproductive!

Nevertheless, this supposed good news brought this reaction from Wall St, where everything seems twisted to be the opposite of what one would expect in recent years:

Clearly, this "good news" is seen as bad news on Wall St!

Update: This perspective this morning from Zero Hedge:
"As can be seen on the chart below, the last time single-family housing starts in the Northeast soared as much as they did in was in June 2008, just before the financial system nearly collapsed."
Here is the accompanying chart:

US Macro Data Continues to Degrade...

...even as stocks reach new record highs!

Weak Jobs Report Sends Stock Soaring

Once again, we see the broken market manifest in these headlines that sent stocks soaring 250+ points:

US Economy Not Rebounding

The economic data is not improving, as was expected. The old story of "weather" isn't true, and the data is not rebounding in the 2nd quarter, as was expected!

Twisted Markets!

This headline says it all:

Stocks Surge to Just 4 Ticks From New Record

Despite terrible economic data this morning, stock futures surged, reaching 2109 a few minutes ago. That's just 4 tiny ticks from a new all-time record high!

Headlines for 4-23-2015: Manufacturing, Home Sales Miss, Crude Surges $2

Now that's just great for the economy! (Sarcasm) Claims for unemployment rose, housing sales are the worst in two years, manufacturing disappointed by the most on record, and the price of crude oil (ie., gasoline) is UP by $2 today! But stocks barely blinked! As I post this, stocks are flat, but trending HIGHER! There simply is no longer any perception of risk or bad news! This is a recipe for disaster!

Claims for unemployment -- not improving!

Manufacturing - worst miss on record!

Home sales -- another bubble?

Crude oil surges $2 higher!

Stocks went positive after I posted this!