Fuzzy Math

The US today has 95.4 million American adults not in the workforce. That's about 40% of the adult population. That's more than the number of adults working and paying taxes! But the Bureau of Labor Statistics tells us that we have only 4.1% unemployment.
Screen capture from the BLS' own website:

Someone is lying and doctoring the data!

Smart Money Quietly Exiting the Market

A similar phenomenon occurred during the spring of 2017, but no stock sell-off occurred. Historically, such smart money sell-offs are a bad omen.

Stock Valuations Continue to Rise to New Highs

This image of a margin-adjusted CAPE, provided by Hussman Funds, shows that stocks continue to reach new highs of excessive valuation.

Still Another Record High

"Oh, but this time is different," they say. Nope! That language is actually an expression of a bubble mentality! It is, itself, proof of a bubble. And every bubble in history has ultimately burst. There has yet to be an exception. This one will too!

This Bubble Gonna Burst

Stocks Straight Up Since Mid August

Despite an upwardly-revised GDP forecast, the overall economic data hasn't improved noticeably. This looks more and more bubbly each day. The S&P 500 has closed higher 26 of the past 32 days. We have seen 43 new all-time record highs this year.

Death Through Debt Approaches

One More Can-Kicking!

Crude Gets Clobbered

Bullish Bonds Spell Worry

Bonds don't rise this sharply, and interest rates plunge similarly, unless there are concerns in the financial markets. Note the last candle at the far right. That sharp buying binge for bonds is indicative of grave worry in the financial markets because investors are running for cover by buying bonds, which they consider to be the safest investment available.

End-Of-Month Rally for Corn

So is this just a temporary situation, a short-covering rally, a dead cat bounce, or has Harvey created a corn supply crisis? Stay tuned!

Cliff-Diving Corn

I'm amazed this morning that even with the plunging price of corn over the past two months, the price of corn is down sharply today also. Here is today's chart:

And here is the trend chart over the past two months:

Morose Economic Data Sends Stocks Tumbling

The Dow was down 251 points with just minutes left in the trading session today.

Sniff, Sniff! Smells Like a Bubble to Me!

This headline from Marketwatch today sure smells like a classic bubble!

War Drums? Imagine The Real Thing!

If you think today's stock market plunge was bad, imagine what would happen if war actually happened! We wiped out about a month's worth of gains today!

Sure Looks Like a BUbble

This image, from Dr. John Hussman's weekly market analysis, suggests that this stock market bubble is just getting bigger and bigger. The Dow finished up 9 days in a row today, even though it was already at record highs. Of course, the nature of a bubble is that the vast majority of market participants don't recognize it as such. If they did, extreme prices wouldn't be moving from one extreme to even greater ones.
In the image, the red line is the calculation of a log-period bubble base on the formulas of Dr. Didier Sornette. This bubble matches his calculations perfectly. It is a flawless example of a financial bubble.

Corn Prices Crushed

Corn prices today dropped below support to multi-month lows. These are the lowest prices of this year!

Both Hard and Soft Data Show Weakness!

Ouch!

Central Bankers Still Printing Money With Little Restraint

Debt Disaster Coming

Economic Data Stalls As S&P Continues Near Record Highs

How long can this continue? There seems to be a dismissiveness on Wall St of the economic data, even as the S&P 500 continues near a new record high this morning. Even the Fed's own data is showing weakness! This divergence will eventually close, and when it does, history suggests that it will be UG-LY!